Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel498 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Toulouse—%
Draw—%
Le Mans—%
Weather (Toulouse)
Forecast from 19 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Toulouse and Le Mans. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Le Mans
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Le Mans
−1.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 7-match window
xG for1.50xG against2.89
-
Alert
Le Mans
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Le Mans
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
Le Mans
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Le Mans
−1.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 7-match window
xG for1.50xG against2.89
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ToulouseLe Mans
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
45
AttackIn forecast
27
49
DefenceIn forecast
21
54
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLe Mans
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLe Mans
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
71%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.57
ShotsContext
10.14
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
34%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
65%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.43
Shots allowedContext
16.57
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
4.00
BlocksContext
3.43
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
65%
Save rateContext
58%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
500
PassesContext
406
430
Accurate passesContext
325
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.60
15.43
FoulsContext
14.86
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
70%
Scored inContext
86%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.14
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
62%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.57
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
4.33
BlocksContext
3.43
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
67%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
428
PassesContext
406
366
Accurate passesContext
325
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.60
14.60
FoulsContext
14.86
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
LDWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,847 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Le Mans
DDWLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel498 km1,465 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 31 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Le Mans |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 27 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 498 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,847 km | 1,465 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Last XI · not confirmed
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
Le Mans
Last XI · not confirmed
98N. Kocik(G)
5H. Voyer
17S. Yohou
19D. Sidibé
29Lucas Bretelle
76Y. Larouci
10J. Vercruysse
23D. Traoré
18L. Buadés
14L. Mafouta
25D. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Le Mans
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Le Mans · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Toulouse wins0 draws0 Le Mans wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 16 Oct 2026Le Mans0–3Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.57 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Toulouse | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.57 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 14% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Toulouse | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Toulouse7 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Le Mans7 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Le Mans7 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
