Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel308 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Rennes—%
Draw—%
Paris Saint Germain—%
Weather (Rennes)
Forecast from 19 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Rennes and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Paris Saint Germain
+1.09
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.37xG against1.28
-
Trend
Paris Saint Germain
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
6
Wins in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Alert
Rennes
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Rennes
+0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.91
-
Trend
Rennes
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Attack
-
Insight
Paris Saint Germain
+1.09
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.37xG against1.28
-
Trend
Paris Saint Germain
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Paris Saint Germain
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Rennes
+0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.91
-
Trend
Rennes
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Rennes
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Streaks
-
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
6
Wins in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
6
Unbeaten in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
9
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
RennesParis Saint Germain
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
63
AttackIn forecast
91
39
DefenceIn forecast
83
42
Form indexContext
96
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesParis Saint Germain
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
2.22
xGVia Att/Def
2.65
2.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
86%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
16.29
ShotsContext
20.57
6.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.14
39%
On target shareContext
35%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.71
65%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.20
15.29
Shots allowedContext
10.86
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
4.71
BlocksContext
2.17
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
63%
Save rateContext
83%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
472
PassesContext
708
398
Accurate passesContext
637
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.57
FoulsContext
5.71
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.37
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
18.60
ShotsContext
21.50
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.80
34%
On target shareContext
36%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
66%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
3.33
14.70
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.89
BlocksContext
3.22
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
68%
Save rateContext
78%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
476
PassesContext
702
403
Accurate passesContext
632
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.07
12.40
FoulsContext
7.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
DLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,531 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Paris Saint Germain
WWWWW
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel308 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 27 Feb | 5.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,531 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Last XI · not confirmed
30B. Samba(G)
95P. Frankowski
24A. Rouault
4C. Cresswell
14B. Reynolds
28A. Thomasson
6D. Cissé
17S. Szymański
90I. Soumaré
9E. Lepaul
10L. Blas
Paris Saint Germain
Last XI · not confirmed
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne
21L. Hernández
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo
27Dro Fernández
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
9Ferran Torres
11M. Akliouche
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris Saint Germain
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Paris Saint Germain · Away
2.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Le Mans | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Rennes wins2 draws5 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 23 Aug 2026Rennes2–2Paris Saint Germain
- 13 Feb 2026Rennes3–1Paris Saint Germain
- 6 Dec 2025Paris Saint Germain5–0Rennes
- 8 Mar 2025Rennes1–4Paris Saint Germain
- 27 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Rennes
- 25 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain1–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 4.14 | 3.29 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Rennes | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.83 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 8.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 3.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Rennes | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.56 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 9.71 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.30 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Rennes7 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
4
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
