Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Toulouse had 6 days of rest, Lorient 7 and had to travel 593 km.
Away travel593 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse43%
Draw28%
Lorient29%
Toulouse44%
Draw27%
Lorient29%
Toulouse44%
Draw28%
Lorient28%
Toulouse36%
Draw28%
Lorient35%
Toulouse44%
Draw27%
Lorient29%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
Toulouse
Lorient
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
45
AttackIn forecast
28
49
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLorient
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
65%
Scored inContext
73%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.08
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.65
34%
On target shareContext
33%
9.08
Shots in the boxContext
7.04
66%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.88
Shots allowedContext
10.54
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.04
BlocksContext
3.00
2.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
66%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
372
PassesContext
416
305
Accurate passesContext
352
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.00
FoulsContext
9.58
11.46
Fouls sufferedContext
13.62
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.80
ShotsContext
10.40
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
56%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
68%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
426
PassesContext
439
355
Accurate passesContext
373
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.90
FoulsContext
8.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,421 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel593 km1,144 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 593 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,421 km | 1,144 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
35S. Koumbassa
3M. McKenzie
19D. Sidibé
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
13J. Russell-Rowe
11S. Hidalgo
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
32N. Adjei
44D. Yongwa
43Arsène Kouassi
62A. Avom
8Noah Cadiou
11T. Le Bris
29D. Karim
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lorient+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.31
Lorient · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Nice | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Lille | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 3–6 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 33 of 75 · 1.32 per game | 36 of 75 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Toulouse wins3 draws0 Lorient wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025Lorient1–1Toulouse
- 28 Apr 2024Lorient1–2Toulouse
- 3 Dec 2023Toulouse1–1Lorient
- 23 Apr 2023Lorient0–1Toulouse
- 21 Aug 2022Toulouse2–2Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.96 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 27% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Toulouse | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.77 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.17 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 12/26 | 21% 5/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 19/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Toulouse | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.50 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.71
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+27%league 36%
Fouls25.1league 23.8
Penalties0.09league 0.37
Home wins36%league 48%
Toulouse2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Jan 26A · Stade Brestois 292–03
- L25 Oct 25A · Monaco0–14
Lorient1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Jan 26H · Metz1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse26 games · scored 37 · conceded 32
6
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
6
7
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
12
7
76-90
Lorient26 games · scored 37 · conceded 40
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
5
9
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
13
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
