Toulouse
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Toulouse43.3%fair odds 2.31
Draw27.9%fair odds 3.58
Lorient28.8%fair odds 3.47
Expected goals1.41 – 1.10total 2.51
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Toulouse ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Toulouse goals, columns Lorient goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.52
- 1–010.8%9.26
- 2–18.9%11.28
- 0–08.8%11.32
- 0–18.3%12.03
- 2–08.1%12.41
- 1–26.9%14.40
- 0–24.9%20.23
- 2–24.9%20.50
- 3–14.2%24.08
Winning margin
7.9%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 12.68
13.1%
Toulouse by 2
fair 7.63
22.3%
Toulouse by 1
fair 4.49
27.9%
Draw
fair 3.58
17.3%
Lorient by 1
fair 5.78
8.0%
Lorient by 2
fair 12.44
3.5%
Lorient by 3+
fair 28.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Toulouse goals
25%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Lorient goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 43.3% | 43.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Lorient win | 28.8% | 28.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 47.8% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 52.6% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Toulouse | 1.41 | 1.45 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Lorient | 1.10 | 1.13 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Toulouse win43.3%2.31
- Draw27.9%3.58
- Lorient win28.8%3.47
- Double chance Toulouse or draw71.2%1.40
- Double chance Toulouse or Lorient72.1%1.39
- Double chance Lorient or draw56.7%1.76
- Draw no bet Toulouse60.0%1.67
- Draw no bet Lorient40.0%2.50
Goals
- Over 0.591.2%1.10
- Over 1.572.0%1.39
- Over 2.545.8%2.19
- Over 3.524.4%4.11
- Over 4.511.0%9.13
- Under 1.528.0%3.58
- Under 2.554.2%1.84
- Under 3.575.6%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.0%1.96
- No49.0%2.04
- Yes and over 2.537.7%2.65
- Toulouse win and yes18.8%5.31
- Draw and yes19.1%5.24
- Lorient win and yes13.1%7.63
Team goals
- Toulouse over 0.575.5%1.33
- Toulouse over 1.541.0%2.44
- Toulouse over 2.516.8%5.96
- Lorient over 0.566.7%1.50
- Lorient over 1.530.1%3.32
- Lorient over 2.510.0%10.03
- Toulouse clean sheet33.3%3.01
- Lorient clean sheet24.5%4.08
- Toulouse win to nil24.4%4.09
- Lorient win to nil15.7%6.37
Handicap
- Toulouse −1.521.0%4.76
- Toulouse −2.57.9%12.68
- Lorient +1.579.0%1.27
- Lorient +2.592.1%1.09
- Lorient −1.511.5%8.68
- Toulouse +1.588.5%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored234
Favourite won55.1%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right52.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.0% | 51.4% |
| 40–50% | 73 | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 74.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 181 of 234 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5913 | 0.5822 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.9% | 53.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 181 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 234 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.