Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 13:00 Papara Park, Trabzon
Trabzonspor 4th · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Gazişehir Gaziantep 14th · 8 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Trabzonspor69.2%fair odds 1.45
Draw17.9%fair odds 5.59
Gazişehir Gaziantep12.9%fair odds 7.74
Expected goals2.47 – 0.99total 3.46
Likeliest score2–09.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Trabzonspor

Baseline: average Süper Lig opponent

Attack Uplift +20% Expected goals Baseline2.06Forecast2.47
Conceding Risk −17% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.19Forecast0.99
Clean Sheet +6.6 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline30.3%Forecast37.0%

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Baseline: average Süper Lig opponent

Attack Downlift −10% Expected goals Baseline1.11Forecast0.99
Conceding Risk +23% Expected goals conceded Baseline2.00Forecast2.47
Clean Sheet −5.0 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline13.5%Forecast8.5%
About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Trabzonspor ↓ · Gazişehir Gaziantep →0123456+
03.62.71.60.50.10.00.0
17.38.13.81.30.30.10.0
29.69.54.71.60.40.10.0
37.97.83.91.30.30.10.0
44.84.82.40.80.20.00.0
52.42.41.20.40.10.00.0
6+1.51.50.70.20.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Trabzonspor goals, columns Gazişehir Gaziantep goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–09.6%10.47
  • 2–19.5%10.53
  • 1–18.1%12.33
  • 3–07.9%12.73
  • 3–17.8%12.81
  • 1–07.3%13.62
  • 4–04.8%20.66
  • 4–14.8%20.77
  • 2–24.7%21.17
  • 3–23.9%25.76

Winning margin

27.4% Trabzonspor by 3+ fair 3.65
20.2% Trabzonspor by 2 fair 4.95
21.6% Trabzonspor by 1 fair 4.63
17.9% Draw fair 5.59
8.5% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1 fair 11.80
3.3% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2 fair 30.46
1.2% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+ fair 85.50

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+

Trabzonspor goals

8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+

Gazişehir Gaziantep goals

37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Trabzonspor win 69.2% 68.5% +0.7 pp
Draw 17.9% 18.4% -0.5 pp
Gazişehir Gaziantep win 12.9% 13.2% -0.2 pp
Over 2.5 67.2% 65.6% +1.6 pp
Both teams score 58.1% 57.1% +1.0 pp
Expected goals Trabzonspor 2.47 2.40 +0.06
Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep 0.99 0.97 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Trabzonspor win69.2%1.45
  • Draw17.9%5.59
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win12.9%7.74
  • Double chance Trabzonspor or draw87.1%1.15
  • Double chance Trabzonspor or Gazişehir Gaziantep82.1%1.22
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw30.8%3.24
  • Draw no bet Trabzonspor84.3%1.19
  • Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep15.7%6.35

Goals

  • Over 0.596.4%1.04
  • Over 1.586.4%1.16
  • Over 2.567.2%1.49
  • Over 3.545.5%2.20
  • Over 4.526.7%3.74
  • Under 1.513.6%7.35
  • Under 2.532.8%3.05
  • Under 3.554.5%1.83

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.1%1.72
  • No41.9%2.38
  • Yes and over 2.549.9%2.00
  • Trabzonspor win and yes35.7%2.80
  • Draw and yes14.3%6.97
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes8.0%12.52

Team goals

  • Trabzonspor over 0.591.5%1.09
  • Trabzonspor over 1.570.6%1.42
  • Trabzonspor over 2.544.7%2.24
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.563.0%1.59
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.526.2%3.81
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.57.9%12.61
  • Trabzonspor clean sheet37.0%2.70
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet8.5%11.77
  • Trabzonspor win to nil33.4%2.99
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil4.9%20.23

Handicap

  • Trabzonspor −1.547.6%2.10
  • Trabzonspor −2.527.4%3.65
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.552.4%1.91
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +2.572.6%1.38
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.54.5%22.46
  • Trabzonspor +1.595.5%1.05

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored72 Favourite won51.4% Avg chance given to result41.4% 1X2 Brier0.575 Over 2.5 called right62.5% BTTS called right44.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1238.6%33.3%
40–50%2844.8%42.9%
50–60%1755.5%47.1%
60–70%965.2%77.8%
70–80%674.5%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 46 of 72 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.53680.5303
Avg chance given to result43.2%43.8%
Favourite won58.7%58.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 9 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.