Süper Lig Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 19 · 18:00 Papara Park, Trabzon
Trabzonspor 3rd · 64 pts · 29 played
1–1Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir 6th · 47 pts · 29 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Trabzonspor52.8%fair odds 1.90
Draw24.1%fair odds 4.14
Istanbul Basaksehir23.1%fair odds 4.33
Expected goals1.82 – 1.14total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Trabzonspor

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Istanbul Basaksehir

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Trabzonspor ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir →0123456+
05.85.43.41.30.40.10.0
18.911.36.12.30.70.10.0
28.69.85.62.10.60.10.0
35.25.93.41.30.40.10.0
42.42.71.50.60.20.00.0
50.91.00.60.20.10.00.0
6+0.30.40.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Trabzonspor goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.3%8.82
  • 2–19.8%10.22
  • 1–08.9%11.23
  • 2–08.6%11.61
  • 1–26.1%16.35
  • 3–15.9%16.86
  • 0–05.8%17.29
  • 2–25.6%17.99
  • 0–15.4%18.69
  • 3–05.2%19.16

Winning margin

13.7% Trabzonspor by 3+ fair 7.27
16.3% Trabzonspor by 2 fair 6.13
22.7% Trabzonspor by 1 fair 4.40
24.1% Draw fair 4.14
14.0% Istanbul Basaksehir by 1 fair 7.16
6.4% Istanbul Basaksehir by 2 fair 15.70
2.8% Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+ fair 36.17

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+

Trabzonspor goals

16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+

Istanbul Basaksehir goals

32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Trabzonspor win 52.8% 52.1% +0.7 pp
Draw 24.1% 24.8% -0.7 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir win 23.1% 23.1% -0.0 pp
Over 2.5 56.6% 54.0% +2.7 pp
Both teams score 57.4% 55.4% +2.0 pp
Expected goals Trabzonspor 1.82 1.75 +0.07
Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir 1.14 1.09 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Trabzonspor win52.8%1.90
  • Draw24.1%4.14
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win23.1%4.33
  • Double chance Trabzonspor or draw76.9%1.30
  • Double chance Trabzonspor or Istanbul Basaksehir75.9%1.32
  • Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw47.2%2.12
  • Draw no bet Trabzonspor69.5%1.44
  • Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir30.5%3.28

Goals

  • Over 0.594.2%1.06
  • Over 1.580.0%1.25
  • Over 2.556.6%1.77
  • Over 3.534.3%2.92
  • Over 4.517.7%5.65
  • Under 1.520.0%4.99
  • Under 2.543.4%2.31
  • Under 3.565.7%1.52

Both teams to score

  • Yes57.4%1.74
  • No42.6%2.35
  • Yes and over 2.546.1%2.17
  • Trabzonspor win and yes26.4%3.78
  • Draw and yes18.4%5.45
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes12.7%7.90

Team goals

  • Trabzonspor over 0.583.8%1.19
  • Trabzonspor over 1.554.2%1.84
  • Trabzonspor over 2.527.4%3.65
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.567.9%1.47
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.531.4%3.18
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.510.7%9.35
  • Trabzonspor clean sheet32.1%3.11
  • Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet16.2%6.16
  • Trabzonspor win to nil26.3%3.80
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil10.5%9.57

Handicap

  • Trabzonspor −1.530.1%3.33
  • Trabzonspor −2.513.7%7.27
  • Istanbul Basaksehir +1.569.9%1.43
  • Istanbul Basaksehir +2.586.3%1.16
  • Istanbul Basaksehir −1.59.1%10.95
  • Trabzonspor +1.590.9%1.10

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored268 Favourite won51.9% Avg chance given to result40.8% 1X2 Brier0.585 Over 2.5 called right54.9% BTTS called right52.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4138.1%36.6%
40–50%10644.2%42.5%
50–60%6954.9%58.0%
60–70%3165.3%74.2%
70–80%1775.4%70.6%
80%+482.1%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 218 of 268 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.58920.5756
Avg chance given to result40.6%41.8%
Favourite won53.2%53.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 218 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 268 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.