Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Trabzonspor
3rd · 64 pts · 29 played
WWWWD
1–1Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 47 pts · 29 played
WLDDW
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 36). Absences weigh more on Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor had 8.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 8.2 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days8.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Trabzonspor53%
Draw24%
Istanbul Basaksehir23%
Trabzonspor52%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir23%
Trabzonspor54%
Draw24%
Istanbul Basaksehir22%
Trabzonspor45%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir29%
Trabzonspor52%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir23%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 28
Team strength
TrabzonsporIstanbul Basaksehir
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
54
AttackIn forecast
32
48
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporIstanbul Basaksehir
1.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
93%
Scored inContext
79%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
14.86
ShotsContext
12.93
5.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.62
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.32
Shots in the boxContext
9.04
61%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.76
Shots allowedContext
12.38
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.59
BlocksContext
3.70
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
77%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
439
PassesContext
427
380
Accurate passesContext
361
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.83
FoulsContext
12.76
13.07
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
13.80
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
66%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.80
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.00
BlocksContext
3.60
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
79%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
466
PassesContext
420
411
Accurate passesContext
350
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.50
FoulsContext
13.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 394 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
11O. Tufan
42Christ Inao Oulaï
9A. Nwakaeme
99F. da Silva
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
88K. Karataş
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
6O. Bulut
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
91B. Yıldırım
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-1
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 0.93
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 5–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 3–4 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Besiktas | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 61 of 84 · 2.18 per game | 47 of 84 · 1.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Trabzonspor wins1 draws0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.80
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 24 Nov 2025Istanbul Basaksehir3–4Trabzonspor
- 15 Mar 2025Istanbul Basaksehir0–3Trabzonspor
- 19 Oct 2024Trabzonspor1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18 May 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–1Trabzonspor
- 23 Dec 2023Trabzonspor1–1Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.93 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.66 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 59% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 55% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Trabzonspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.93 | 4.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.07 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 9.71 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 17/27 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 11/27 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.66 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.45 | 2.34 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.62 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 8/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Trabzonspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.00 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.80 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 4.46
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+43%league 46%
Fouls23.2league 26.1
Penalties0.36league 0.28
Home wins39%league 40%
Trabzonspor3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W7 Feb 26A · Samsunspor3–01
- W29 Nov 25H · Konyaspor3–11
- L8 Mar 25H · Hatayspor1–22
Istanbul Basaksehir3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25A · Besiktas1–24
- D23 Dec 24H · Kasimpasa2–22
- W28 Jan 24A · Konyaspor3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor29 games · scored 56 · conceded 31
6
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
7
31-45
15
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
11
6
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir29 games · scored 47 · conceded 30
5
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
8
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
