Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 26). Twente had 7.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 2.7 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days7.1 · 2.7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Twente51%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles24%
Twente50%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles24%
Twente51%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles24%
Twente44%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles30%
Twente50%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles24%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 49
Team strength
Twente
GO Ahead Eagles
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
41
AttackIn forecast
29
49
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteGO Ahead Eagles
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
73%
Scored inContext
87%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.87
ShotsContext
10.60
5.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.93
34%
On target shareContext
47%
10.73
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
63%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.13
Shots allowedContext
18.20
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.87
3.27
BlocksContext
6.77
2.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.47
60%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
457
PassesContext
433
373
Accurate passesContext
357
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.47
FoulsContext
8.80
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.93
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.27
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.70
ShotsContext
7.60
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
47%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
65%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.10
Shots allowedContext
16.40
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
2.70
BlocksContext
5.11
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
56%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
460
PassesContext
416
382
Accurate passesContext
339
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.20
FoulsContext
9.20
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km244 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel50 km1,662 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 28 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 244 km | 1,662 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
7M. Pjaca
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
10S. Lammers
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
23T. Baeten
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.43
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Twente | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Telstar | D 0–0 H | L 2–4 A |
| Ajax | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 2–1 H | L 2–4 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 5–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 20 of 42 · 1.43 per game | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Twente wins1 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game2.75 – 1.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 2 Feb 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Twente
- 1 Dec 2024Twente3–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 25 Feb 2024Twente3–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 3 Dec 2023GO Ahead Eagles1–3Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.87 | 3.40 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 73% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Twente | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 5.87 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 11.07 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 5/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 4/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.47 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Twente | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.90 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 3.37
Red cards0.16league 0.22
Cards 5+31%league 33%
Fouls22.5league 21.9
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins49%league 48%
Twente6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D2 Nov 25A · Groningen1–14
- L10 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle0–11
- W4 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam2–00
- L21 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar0–14
- D11 Nov 23H · NEC Nijmegen3–31
GO Ahead Eagles6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W9 Nov 25H · Feyenoord2–12
- D11 May 25A · PEC Zwolle1–12
- D12 Apr 25A · NAC Breda1–13
- L23 Feb 25A · Ajax0–22
- W25 Aug 24H · Waalwijk2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente15 games · scored 23 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
6
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles14 games · scored 23 · conceded 26
5
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
8
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
3
5
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
6
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
