Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were clear favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 15). Twente had 8.7 days of rest, Heracles 7.6 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days8.7 · 7.6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente62%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Twente61%
Draw23%
Heracles17%
Twente62%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Twente55%
Draw24%
Heracles21%
Twente61%
Draw22%
Heracles17%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 59
Team strength
Twente
Heracles
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
41
AttackIn forecast
7
49
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteHeracles
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.57
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.21
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
57%
Scored inContext
57%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
17.57
ShotsContext
10.71
6.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
32%
10.86
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
61%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.86
Shots allowedContext
20.71
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.71
BlocksContext
7.86
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
63%
Save rateContext
59%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
451
PassesContext
331
359
Accurate passesContext
254
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.86
FoulsContext
13.00
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.50
ShotsContext
11.40
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
62%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.10
Shots allowedContext
19.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.20
3.70
BlocksContext
6.90
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
59%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
438
PassesContext
334
353
Accurate passesContext
260
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.50
FoulsContext
11.90
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest7.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Sep | 7.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.2 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
2M. Benita
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
21Y. Borges Sanches
17T. van Gilst
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Heracles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Heracles · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 5–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Twente wins1 draws1 Heracles wins
Goals per game2.67 – 1.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 30 Mar 2025Heracles2–1Twente
- 27 Oct 2024Twente5–0Heracles
- 22 Oct 2023Heracles2–2Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.43 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Twente | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.43 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.57 | 7.14 | |
| Match total | 8.28 | 10.85 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 4.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Twente | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.60 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 3.53
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+34%league 35%
Fouls20.2league 22.4
Penalties0.20league 0.21
Home wins34%league 49%
Twente5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L14 May 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–31
- D10 Nov 24H · Ajax2–21
- W10 Aug 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–10
- D28 Jan 24A · Feyenoord0–01
- L25 Nov 23H · PSV Eindhoven0–32
Heracles4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L3 May 25H · Feyenoord1–43
- D24 Jan 25H · Utrecht1–15
- D15 Sep 24H · Almere City FC0–01
- L10 Nov 23A · Fortuna Sittard1–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente7 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Heracles7 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 25
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
