Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 15). Twente had 14 days of rest, NAC Breda 13.2 and had to travel 162 km.
Away travel162 kmRest days14 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente60%
Draw23%
NAC Breda18%
Twente58%
Draw23%
NAC Breda18%
Twente60%
Draw23%
NAC Breda18%
Twente52%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
Twente58%
Draw23%
NAC Breda18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 26
Team strength
Twente
NAC Breda
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
41
AttackIn forecast
19
49
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteNAC Breda
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.44
-1.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
25%
Scored inContext
25%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.75
ShotsContext
9.75
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
30%
On target shareContext
36%
10.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
59%
Box shareContext
54%
3%
ConversionContext
5%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.50
Shots allowedContext
18.25
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
4.75
BlocksContext
5.00
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.75
69%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
457
PassesContext
330
360
Accurate passesContext
254
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.75
FoulsContext
11.75
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
33%
On target shareContext
30%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
64%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.90
BlocksContext
3.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
63%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
411
PassesContext
398
325
Accurate passesContext
323
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.60
FoulsContext
10.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel162 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 162 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 337 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
6R. Zerrouki
32A. Verschueren
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
2B. Lucassen
16M. Balard
90L. Holtby
7C. Brym
10M. Nassoh
32J. Talvitie
14K. Sowah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
NAC Breda · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Twente wins0 draws1 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 19 Jan 2025NAC Breda2–1Twente
- 29 Sep 2024Twente1–0NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.25 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Twente | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.25 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.00 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.75 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Twente | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.10 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.46
Red cards0.31league 0.16
Cards 5+31%league 35%
Fouls22.8league 22.5
Penalties0.38league 0.16
Home wins50%league 51%
Twente1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Dec 24H · Groningen2–01
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D29 Mar 25H · Groningen1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente4 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
NAC Breda4 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
