Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Twente59.5%fair odds 1.68
Draw22.7%fair odds 4.41
NAC Breda17.8%fair odds 5.61
Expected goals1.95 – 0.98total 2.93
Likeliest score1–110.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Twente ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Twente goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%9.31
- 2–010.2%9.83
- 2–19.9%10.05
- 1–09.9%10.11
- 3–06.6%15.11
- 3–16.5%15.46
- 0–05.9%16.98
- 1–25.0%20.06
- 2–24.9%20.57
- 0–14.7%21.34
Winning margin
17.6%
Twente by 3+
fair 5.69
18.4%
Twente by 2
fair 5.43
23.6%
Twente by 1
fair 4.24
22.7%
Draw
fair 4.41
11.5%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 8.67
4.6%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 21.65
1.7%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 59.80
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Twente goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
NAC Breda goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente win | 59.5% | 58.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.4% | -0.7 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 17.8% | 18.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 53.7% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.0% | 52.6% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Twente | 1.95 | 1.87 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 0.98 | 0.95 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Twente win59.5%1.68
- Draw22.7%4.41
- NAC Breda win17.8%5.61
- Double chance Twente or draw82.2%1.22
- Double chance Twente or NAC Breda77.3%1.29
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw40.5%2.47
- Draw no bet Twente77.0%1.30
- Draw no bet NAC Breda23.0%4.34
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.1%1.78
- Over 3.533.7%2.97
- Over 4.517.3%5.78
- Under 1.520.5%4.89
- Under 2.543.9%2.28
- Under 3.566.3%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes54.0%1.85
- No46.0%2.18
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- Twente win and yes27.8%3.60
- Draw and yes16.8%5.96
- NAC Breda win and yes9.5%10.53
Team goals
- Twente over 0.585.8%1.17
- Twente over 1.558.1%1.72
- Twente over 2.531.0%3.23
- NAC Breda over 0.562.4%1.60
- NAC Breda over 1.525.6%3.91
- NAC Breda over 2.57.6%13.12
- Twente clean sheet37.6%2.66
- NAC Breda clean sheet14.2%7.04
- Twente win to nil31.7%3.15
- NAC Breda win to nil8.3%12.01
Handicap
- Twente −1.536.0%2.78
- Twente −2.517.6%5.69
- NAC Breda +1.564.0%1.56
- NAC Breda +2.582.4%1.21
- NAC Breda −1.56.3%15.89
- Twente +1.593.7%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won62.2%
Avg chance given to result45.8%
1X2 Brier0.513
Over 2.5 called right67.6%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.3% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 55.5% | 72.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 63.2% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 76.3% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 15 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4495 | 0.4371 |
| Avg chance given to result | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 73.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 15 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.