Udinese
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Udinese27.3%fair odds 3.67
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.85
Como46.8%fair odds 2.14
Expected goals1.17 – 1.61total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Como
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Udinese ↓ · Como → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Udinese goals, columns Como goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.12
- 1–29.4%10.65
- 0–19.3%10.70
- 0–28.0%12.50
- 2–16.9%14.56
- 0–06.8%14.65
- 1–06.7%15.00
- 2–25.5%18.14
- 1–35.0%19.89
- 0–34.3%23.35
Winning margin
3.5%
Udinese by 3+
fair 28.35
7.7%
Udinese by 2
fair 13.02
16.1%
Udinese by 1
fair 6.23
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.85
22.2%
Como by 1
fair 4.50
14.4%
Como by 2
fair 6.96
10.2%
Como by 3+
fair 9.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Udinese goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Como goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese win | 27.3% | 28.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Como win | 46.8% | 45.3% | +1.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 50.8% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 54.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Udinese | 1.17 | 1.17 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Como | 1.61 | 1.54 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Udinese win27.3%3.67
- Draw26.0%3.85
- Como win46.8%2.14
- Double chance Udinese or draw53.2%1.88
- Double chance Udinese or Como74.0%1.35
- Double chance Como or draw72.7%1.37
- Draw no bet Udinese36.8%2.71
- Draw no bet Como63.2%1.58
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.2%1.30
- Over 2.552.6%1.90
- Over 3.530.4%3.29
- Over 4.514.9%6.70
- Under 1.522.8%4.38
- Under 2.547.4%2.11
- Under 3.569.6%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- Udinese win and yes14.0%7.13
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Como win and yes22.7%4.41
Team goals
- Udinese over 0.569.1%1.45
- Udinese over 1.532.8%3.05
- Udinese over 2.511.5%8.70
- Como over 0.579.9%1.25
- Como over 1.547.7%2.10
- Como over 2.521.8%4.58
- Udinese clean sheet20.1%4.98
- Como clean sheet30.9%3.23
- Udinese win to nil13.2%7.55
- Como win to nil24.1%4.15
Handicap
- Udinese −1.511.2%8.92
- Udinese −2.53.5%28.35
- Como +1.588.8%1.13
- Como +2.596.5%1.04
- Como −1.524.6%4.07
- Udinese +1.575.4%1.33
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.