Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 29). Udinese had 6 days of rest, Lazio 7 and had to travel 468 km.
Away travel468 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Udinese26%
Draw28%
Lazio46%
Udinese27%
Draw26%
Lazio47%
Udinese26%
Draw28%
Lazio46%
Udinese21%
Draw26%
Lazio53%
Udinese27%
Draw26%
Lazio47%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 60
Team strength
Udinese
Lazio
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
22
AttackIn forecast
53
18
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseLazio
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.69
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
81%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
12.38
ShotsContext
11.00
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.81
57%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.73
OffsidesContext
1.29
12.06
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.13
BlocksContext
3.00
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.69
60%
Save rateContext
86%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
355
PassesContext
471
287
Accurate passesContext
402
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.44
FoulsContext
10.75
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
16.94
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
32%
On target shareContext
42%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
63%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
1.71
OffsidesContext
—
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.70
BlocksContext
3.60
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
58%
Save rateContext
92%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
337
PassesContext
490
266
Accurate passesContext
420
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.88
14.20
FoulsContext
10.00
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
16.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km598 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel468 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 468 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 598 km | 737 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
93D. Padelli(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
13N. Bertola
32J. Ekkelenkamp
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
5M. Vecino
32D. Cataldi
21R. Belahyane
10M. Zaccagni
14T. Noslin
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lazio+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lazio · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Bologna | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lecce | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Inter | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Verona | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game | 22 of 42 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Udinese wins4 draws2 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 10 Mar 2025Lazio1–1Udinese
- 24 Aug 2024Udinese2–1Lazio
- 11 Mar 2024Lazio1–2Udinese
- 7 Jan 2024Udinese1–2Lazio
- 21 May 2023Udinese0–1Lazio
- 16 Oct 2022Lazio0–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 0.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.75 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 19% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 13% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 50% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Udinese | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 1.10 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.62 | |
| Match total | 8.87 | 7.93 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 8% 1/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.94 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 4/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Udinese | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 7.45 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.00 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 3.92
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+57%league 39%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.31
Home wins42%league 40%
Udinese3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Mar 24H · Torino0–23
- D16 Oct 22A · Lazio0–04
- L13 Feb 22A · Verona0–41
Lazio11 with this referee
Record7-3-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25H · Juventus1–02
- W4 May 25A · Empoli1–05
- L16 Mar 25A · Bologna0–53
- W8 Dec 24A · Napoli1–03
- W10 Nov 24A · Monza1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese16 games · scored 17 · conceded 27
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
Lazio16 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
