Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel586 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Udinese—%
Draw—%
Napoli—%
Weather (Udine)
Forecast from 26 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Udinese and Napoli. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Trend
Udinese
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Udinese
−0.79
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.07xG against1.86
-
Alert
Udinese
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Udinese
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Udinese
−0.79
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.07xG against1.86
Team strength
UdineseNapoli
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
22
AttackIn forecast
61
18
DefenceIn forecast
70
7
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseNapoli
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
2.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
71%
Scored inContext
86%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.14
ShotsContext
16.71
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
27%
On target shareContext
33%
9.14
Shots in the boxContext
11.86
66%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.29
Shots allowedContext
15.57
6.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
4.71
BlocksContext
4.40
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
66%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
467
PassesContext
510
397
Accurate passesContext
443
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.71
FoulsContext
8.57
8.57
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
66%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.90
15.70
Shots allowedContext
16.20
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.30
BlocksContext
5.13
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
445
PassesContext
516
375
Accurate passesContext
450
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.10
FoulsContext
9.00
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
LLLLL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km509 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -6.5 vs expected
Napoli
WDWLL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel586 km1,088 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Jan | 4Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 586 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 509 km | 1,088 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Last XI · not confirmed
40M. Okoye(G)
77E. Ebosse
5D. Alaba
28O. Solet
11H. Kamara
6Oier Zarraga
8J. Karlström
23M. Vojvoda
30G. Chakvetadze
32J. Ekkelenkamp
9K. Davis
Napoli
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
23Giovane
20L. Lucca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Napoli
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Napoli · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 3–5 A | L 2–3 A |
| Como | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Udinese wins3 draws6 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 24 May 2026Napoli1–0Udinese
- 14 Dec 2025Udinese1–0Napoli
- 9 Feb 2025Napoli1–1Udinese
- 14 Dec 2024Udinese1–3Napoli
- 6 May 2024Udinese1–1Napoli
- 27 Sep 2023Napoli4–1Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.57 | 2.43 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Udinese | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 10.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 2.29 | 2.15 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 14% 1/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Udinese | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.26 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Udinese7 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
