Fiorentina vs Lecce – 10 Jan 2027

Serie A Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 10 · 17:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

VS— Compare

Lecce 12th · 9 pts · 7 played LWLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel687 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Fiorentina—%

Draw—%

Lecce—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Firenze)

Forecast from 26 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fiorentina 5 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fiorentina

Lecce

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

42 AttackIn forecast 36

34 DefenceIn forecast 30

20 Form indexContext 35

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Lecce

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.98

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

71% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 29%

16.43 ShotsContext 11.14

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

33% On target shareContext 42%

10.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.14

61% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 12%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.60

12.14 Shots allowedContext 14.86

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.43

2.00 BlocksContext 2.83

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.43

55% Save rateContext 69%

47% PossessionIn forecast 40%

390 PassesContext 346

328 Accurate passesContext 271

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.00 FoulsContext 12.86

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 9.14

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.90 ShotsContext 10.40

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

32% On target shareContext 43%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

61% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 13%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.90 Shots allowedContext 13.80

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.40 BlocksContext 2.67

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

70% Save rateContext 69%

47% PossessionIn forecast 37%

388 PassesContext 312

324 Accurate passesContext 239

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.10 FoulsContext 12.10

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km496 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Lecce LWLLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel687 km1,909 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Udinese3–00.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Bologna1–21.1 xPts
L20 SepA · AC Milan0–30.5 xPts
W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Jan	4Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	687 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	496 km	1,909 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 4	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

Lecce Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Udinese (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

14Y. Maleh 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly

7A. Fatah 69W. Geubbels 11K. N’Dri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lecce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.25

Lecce · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Lecce
Venezia	W 4–2 A	W 2–0 A
AS Roma	L 0–4 A	L 0–4 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Fiorentina wins3 draws2 Lecce wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.00 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

20 Apr 2026Lecce1–1Fiorentina
2 Nov 2025Fiorentina0–1Lecce
28 Feb 2025Fiorentina1–0Lecce
20 Oct 2024Lecce0–6Fiorentina
2 Feb 2024Lecce3–2Fiorentina
27 Aug 2023Fiorentina2–2Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Lecce
Scored per game	1.14	1.29
Conceded per game	2.43	1.71
Match goals	3.57	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	71%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	29%
Clean sheets	0%	29%
Failed to score	29%	43%
Games	7	7

	Fiorentina	Lecce
Scored per game	1.10	1.30
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	2.90	2.80
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	30%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	4.57
Corners conceded	3.86	3.29
Match total	9.15	7.86	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.86
Opponent cards	2.14	0.86
Match total	4.14	2.72	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	14% 1/7

	Fiorentina	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.20
Corners conceded	3.90	3.80
Match total	8.40	8.00	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	1.80	0.80
Match total	3.50	2.80	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.