Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Udinese. Udinese had 6.9 days of rest, Parma 6 and had to travel 267 km.
Away travel267 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Udinese50%
Draw30%
Parma20%
Udinese49%
Draw26%
Parma25%
Udinese51%
Draw29%
Parma20%
Udinese44%
Draw31%
Parma25%
Udinese52%
Draw27%
Parma20%
Over 2.5 35%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Di Marco
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.83
- Matches 6
Team strength
Udinese
Parma
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
22
AttackIn forecast
20
18
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseParma
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.72
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
75%
Scored inContext
56%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.88
ShotsContext
10.41
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
33%
On target shareContext
27%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
57%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.91
OffsidesContext
1.68
12.97
Shots allowedContext
13.63
4.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
3.66
BlocksContext
4.06
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.03
67%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
351
PassesContext
359
282
Accurate passesContext
289
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.50
FoulsContext
10.72
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
13.41
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.66
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.56
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.90
ShotsContext
9.30
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
38%
On target shareContext
31%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
58%
Box shareContext
46%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.00
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.70
BlocksContext
3.40
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
76%
Save rateContext
60%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
340
PassesContext
391
271
Accurate passesContext
327
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.60
FoulsContext
11.20
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel267 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 267 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 642 km | 737 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
24J. Piotrowski
8J. Karlström
19K. Ehizibue
10N. Zaniolo
14A. Atta
32J. Ekkelenkamp
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
14E. Valeri
41H. Nicolussi
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
15E. Delprato
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Parma+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.25points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.19
Parma · Away
1.31points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-5
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | W 3–0 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Como | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Atalanta | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 40 of 93 · 1.29 per game | 36 of 93 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Udinese wins0 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Parma0–2Udinese
- 1 Mar 2025Udinese1–0Parma
- 16 Sep 2024Parma2–3Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 0.72 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.97 | 2.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 31% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 44% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Udinese | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.47 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.29 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 13/30 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 12/30 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 11/30 | 25% 7/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.87 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 17/32 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Udinese | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 7.51 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.80 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Di Marco Italy · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+0%league 36%
Fouls22.2league 24.9
Penalties0.83league 0.30
Home wins50%league 41%
UdineseNo previous matches with this referee.
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese32 games · scored 38 · conceded 42
4
6
0-15
6
6
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
5
9
76-90
Parma32 games · scored 23 · conceded 40
4
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
7
10
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
