Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Union Berlin had 105 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 105 and had to travel 424 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel424 kmRest days105 · 105Matches / 14d0 · 0
Union Berlin41%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
Union Berlin39%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt35%
Union Berlin41%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
Union Berlin34%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt41%
Union Berlin42%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt33%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
26°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 32%
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 80
Team strength
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
42
AttackIn forecast
54
41
DefenceIn forecast
37
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinEintracht Frankfurt
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
39%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
59%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.86
BlocksContext
3.75
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
60%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
353
PassesContext
505
264
Accurate passesContext
435
75%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.90
FoulsContext
8.90
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest105 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest105 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel424 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 105Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May | 105Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 424 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
31Matheo Raab(G)
15T. Rothe
4Z. Van Den Bosch
14L. Querfeld
18J. Juranović
6A. Kemlein
13A. Schäfer
8R. Khedira
20M. Aebischer
29E. Latte Lath
27M. Ljubičić
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi
37J. Maluze
4R. Koch
2E. Baum
42C. Uzun
25R. Onyedika
8F. Chaïbi
29Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
9J. Burkardt
11Y. Ebnoutalib
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
No home games yet this season.
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Union Berlin wins3 draws3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 6 Feb 2026Union Berlin1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 21 Sep 2025Eintracht Frankfurt3–4Union Berlin
- 9 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–2Union Berlin
- 27 Oct 2024Union Berlin1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 30 Mar 2024Eintracht Frankfurt0–0Union Berlin
- 4 Nov 2023Union Berlin0–3Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 12.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.89 | 12.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 4.00
Red cards0.15league 0.00
Cards 5+30%league 0%
Fouls23.0league 27.0
Penalties0.24league 0.00
Home wins45%league 100%
Union Berlin8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Jan 26H · FSV Mainz 052–22
- D12 Apr 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–01
- L22 Feb 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–62
- W30 Aug 24H · FC St. Pauli1–03
- L21 Oct 23H · VfB Stuttgart0–32
Eintracht Frankfurt7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L18 Apr 26H · RB Leipzig1–30
- D7 Dec 24H · FC Augsburg2–22
- W10 Mar 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
- D27 Aug 23A · FSV Mainz 051–14
- W18 Feb 23H · Werder Bremen2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union BerlinEintracht FrankfurtUnion Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
