Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Aug 31 · 17:30 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 2nd · 11 pts · 5 played
2–0Full time
Anderlecht 5th · 9 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Union St. Gilloise had 7 days of rest, Anderlecht 14.2 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 14.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
Union St. Gilloise48%
Draw26%
Anderlecht27%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.18
Union St. Gilloise47%
Draw26%
Anderlecht27%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14
Union St. Gilloise48%
Draw26%
Anderlecht27%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.18
Union St. Gilloise40%
Draw26%
Anderlecht34%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.33
Union St. Gilloise47%
Draw26%
Anderlecht27%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14
Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

No weather data yet

RefereeJasper Vergoote
  • Cards per match 4.3
  • Penalties per match 0.44
  • Matches 32

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseAnderlecht
54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
62 AttackIn forecast 37
74 DefenceIn forecast 52
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseAnderlecht
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25
2.60 xGVia Att/Def 2.26
0.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91
-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.49
80% Scored inContext 100%
60% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.40 ShotsContext 17.75
8.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75
51% On target shareContext 38%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.75
73% Box shareContext 60%
15% ConversionContext 16%
3.80 OffsidesContext 3.50
8.60 Shots allowedContext 9.25
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
1.60 BlocksContext 3.25
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.75
83% Save rateContext 50%
60% PossessionIn forecast 56%
472 PassesContext 462
393 Accurate passesContext 384
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.11 Team ratingContext 7.02
12.80 FoulsContext 14.50
8.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.75
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 5 and 4 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.47 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07
-0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.21
80% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.30 ShotsContext 16.00
7.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.11
43% On target shareContext 38%
13.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.44
75% Box shareContext 59%
11% ConversionContext 12%
3.10 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.30 Shots allowedContext 10.33
3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.10 BlocksContext 2.67
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
68% Save rateContext 58%
58% PossessionIn forecast 56%
481 PassesContext 486
389 Accurate passesContext 414
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.96
13.70 FoulsContext 15.67
10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.44
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Anderlecht
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Aug14.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways84 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one1314

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen 16C. Burgess 26R. Sykes
22O. Niang 8A. Zorgane 4M. Rasmussen 25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
13K. Rodríguez 30R. Florucz
Anderlecht Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson 55M. Kana 3L. Hey 83T. Degreef
24E. Llansana 13N. Saliba
19N. Angulo 11T. Hazard 21C. Huerta
20L. Vázquez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Anderlecht+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.00
Anderlecht · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws0 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 28 Jan 2024Anderlecht2–2Union St. Gilloise
  • 28 Jul 2023Union St. Gilloise2–0Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 2.402.75
Conceded per game 0.601.25
Match goals 3.004.00 2.83
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 60%50% 54%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%50% 57%
Clean sheets 60%50%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games54
Union St. GilloiseAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 2.402.75
Conceded per game 0.601.25
Match goals 3.004.00 2.83
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 60%50% 54%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%50% 57%
Clean sheets 60%50%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games54

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won6.406.00
Corners conceded4.003.75
Match total10.409.759.65
Over 8.560% 3/575% 3/4
Over 9.560% 3/550% 2/4
Over 10.560% 3/550% 2/4
Cards
Cards2.401.75
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total4.403.753.84
Over 3.560% 3/550% 2/4
Over 4.560% 3/525% 1/4
Union St. GilloiseAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won6.785.38
Corners conceded3.564.38
Match total10.349.769.65
Over 8.567% 6/975% 6/8
Over 9.567% 6/963% 5/8
Over 10.556% 5/963% 5/8
Cards
Cards3.202.30
Opponent cards3.002.20
Match total6.204.503.84
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.65
Red cards0.25league 0.19
Cards 5+38%league 35%
Fouls23.7league 23.0
Penalties0.44league 0.33
Home wins56%league 47%
Union St. Gilloise5 with this referee
Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1
  • W9 Aug 25A · Gent3–24
  • D28 Jan 24A · Anderlecht2–22
  • D26 Dec 23A · Club Brugge KV1–17
  • W5 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV2–13
  • W1 Oct 23H · Charleroi3–11
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 0
  • D28 Jan 24H · Union St. Gilloise2–23
  • D12 Nov 23A · Gent1–12
  • W6 Aug 23H · Antwerp1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise5 games · scored 12 · conceded 3
2 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
1 2 76-90
Anderlecht4 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 2 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Cercle Brugge St. Truiden 11 KV Mechelen RAAL La Louvière 32 KVC Westerlo Antwerp 20 Charleroi Dender 31 OH Leuven Standard Liege 10 Union St. Gilloise Anderlecht 20 Genk Zulte Waregem 32