Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 11 pts · 5 played
DWWWD
2–0Full time
Anderlecht
5th · 9 pts · 4 played
WWLW
Union St. Gilloise47.6%fair odds 2.10
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Anderlecht26.8%fair odds 3.73
Expected goals1.65 – 1.18total 2.83
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union St. Gilloise ↓ · Anderlecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns Anderlecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.26
- 2–19.5%10.56
- 1–09.1%10.98
- 2–08.0%12.49
- 1–26.8%14.71
- 0–06.5%15.36
- 0–16.4%15.70
- 2–25.6%17.86
- 3–15.2%19.24
- 3–04.4%22.75
Winning margin
10.7%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 9.31
14.6%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 6.83
22.2%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.50
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
15.8%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 6.34
7.6%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 13.24
3.5%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 28.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Union St. Gilloise goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Anderlecht goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 47.6% | 46.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Anderlecht win | 26.8% | 26.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 50.9% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 54.5% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.65 | 1.57 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.18 | 1.14 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union St. Gilloise win47.6%2.10
- Draw25.6%3.91
- Anderlecht win26.8%3.73
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw73.2%1.37
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht74.4%1.34
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw52.4%1.91
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise64.0%1.56
- Draw no bet Anderlecht36.0%2.77
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.0%1.28
- Over 2.553.8%1.86
- Over 3.531.5%3.18
- Over 4.515.7%6.37
- Under 1.522.0%4.55
- Under 2.546.2%2.16
- Under 3.568.5%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.30
- Yes and over 2.544.5%2.25
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes23.5%4.26
- Draw and yes19.1%5.24
- Anderlecht win and yes14.1%7.11
Team goals
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.580.7%1.24
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.549.0%2.04
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.522.9%4.37
- Anderlecht over 0.569.4%1.44
- Anderlecht over 1.533.1%3.02
- Anderlecht over 2.511.7%8.56
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet30.6%3.26
- Anderlecht clean sheet19.3%5.19
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil24.1%4.14
- Anderlecht win to nil12.8%7.84
Handicap
- Union St. Gilloise −1.525.4%3.94
- Union St. Gilloise −2.510.7%9.31
- Anderlecht +1.574.6%1.34
- Anderlecht +2.589.3%1.12
- Anderlecht −1.511.0%9.06
- Union St. Gilloise +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored43
Favourite won48.8%
Avg chance given to result38.4%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right55.8%
BTTS called right55.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.9% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 25 | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.2% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 43 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓OH Leuven 1–0 Standard Liege38·28·34
- ✗Gent 1–1 Club Brugge KV27·26·48
- ✓Charleroi 3–1 Dender41·27·32
- ✗KVC Westerlo 2–0 Antwerp27·27·46
- ✓KV Mechelen 3–2 RAAL La Louvière49·27·24
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–1 St. Truiden42·27·31
- ✗Dender 0–1 OH Leuven48·27·25
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 Union St. Gilloise25·26·49
- ✓Antwerp 2–1 KV Mechelen50·26·23
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–2 St. Truiden40·27·33
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 43 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.