Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 53 pts · 25 played
WDWWD
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
Antwerp
11th · 30 pts · 25 played
LLWLL
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Union St. Gilloise had 7 days of rest, Antwerp 6.2 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw24%
Antwerp17%
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw23%
Antwerp18%
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw24%
Antwerp17%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Draw26%
Antwerp22%
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw24%
Antwerp17%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 40
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseAntwerp
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
62
AttackIn forecast
24
74
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseAntwerp
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.12
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
84%
Scored inContext
60%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.68
ShotsContext
10.92
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
37%
On target shareContext
37%
11.36
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
73%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
3.15
OffsidesContext
2.86
8.36
Shots allowedContext
13.12
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
2.46
BlocksContext
4.28
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
79%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
423
PassesContext
368
342
Accurate passesContext
291
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.52
FoulsContext
12.52
9.32
Fouls sufferedContext
12.24
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
68%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.63
9.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.11
BlocksContext
4.60
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
78%
Save rateContext
83%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
384
PassesContext
346
297
Accurate passesContext
263
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.60
FoulsContext
13.00
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel42 km44 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 178 km | 44 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
1V. Chambaere(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
8A. Zorgane
6K. Van de Perre
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
7M. Fuseini
12P. David
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
4Yuto Tsunashima
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
30C. Scott
8D. Praet
17S. Renders
7G. Kerk
14A. Valencia
18V. Janssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-0
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 0.25
Antwerp · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 AW 5–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 52 of 72 · 2.17 per game | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Union St. Gilloise wins3 draws0 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Jul 2025Antwerp1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 17 Mar 2024Antwerp1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 3 Sep 2023Union St. Gilloise2–2Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 1.12 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.24 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 36% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 40% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.40 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 4.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.74 | 4.76 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 8.84 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 4.76 | 4.16 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 17/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.38 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 9.20 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.00 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.92
Red cards0.25league 0.19
Cards 5+40%league 42%
Fouls21.9league 22.8
Penalties0.20league 0.31
Home wins50%league 40%
Union St. Gilloise7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W17 Jan 26H · KV Mechelen1–04
- W26 Oct 25H · St. Truiden2–01
- W16 Aug 25H · Standard Liege3–01
- D17 Mar 24A · Antwerp1–15
- W3 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–11
Antwerp7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W8 Nov 25H · RAAL La Louvière3–14
- W24 Aug 25H · KV Mechelen2–11
- D17 Mar 24H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
- W31 Jan 24A · Standard Liege1–03
- D23 Dec 23H · KVC Westerlo2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise25 games · scored 41 · conceded 14
4
4
0-15
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
61-75
12
5
76-90
Antwerp25 games · scored 28 · conceded 28
3
5
0-15
6
5
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
