Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 23 pts · 10 played
WWWWL
3–1Full time
Charleroi
11th · 12 pts · 10 played
WWLLL
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 21). Union St. Gilloise had 13.1 days of rest, Charleroi 15 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days13.1 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Union St. Gilloise68%
Draw20%
Charleroi12%
Union St. Gilloise68%
Draw20%
Charleroi12%
Union St. Gilloise68%
Draw20%
Charleroi12%
Union St. Gilloise61%
Draw23%
Charleroi16%
Union St. Gilloise68%
Draw20%
Charleroi12%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 13
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseCharleroi
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
62
AttackIn forecast
43
74
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseCharleroi
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.80
ShotsContext
10.00
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
40%
11.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
76%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
3.22
OffsidesContext
2.44
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.20
BlocksContext
3.56
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
79%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
427
PassesContext
365
349
Accurate passesContext
291
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.60
FoulsContext
12.10
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.44
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
40%
On target shareContext
39%
10.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
73%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.11
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.30
BlocksContext
3.88
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
414
PassesContext
359
334
Accurate passesContext
285
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.20
FoulsContext
11.89
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel49 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 15Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
4M. Rasmussen
8A. Zorgane
27L. Patris
10A. Ait El Hadj
12P. David
30R. Florucz
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Charleroi · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Gent | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | W 5–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 14 of 18 · 2.33 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Dec 2023Charleroi1–3Union St. Gilloise
- 1 Oct 2023Union St. Gilloise3–1Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.70 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.70 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.50 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.12 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.93
Red cards0.08league 0.23
Cards 5+46%league 44%
Fouls25.1league 22.9
Penalties0.23league 0.29
Home wins31%league 41%
Union St. GilloiseNo previous matches with this referee.
Charleroi4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Sep 25A · Genk1–02
- D17 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–13
- L23 Dec 23A · St. Truiden0–10
- W23 Sep 23H · Kortrijk1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 19 · conceded 5
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
