Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 20 · 16:00 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
First leg5–1 VS— Compare
KVC Westerlo 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel48 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Union St. Gilloise—%
Draw—%
KVC Westerlo—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussels)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
62 AttackIn forecast 42
74 DefenceIn forecast 32
73 Form indexContext 83
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.37
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93
+1.43 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
88% Scored inContext 88%
63% Clean sheetsContext 25%
16.88 ShotsContext 14.88
7.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38
42% On target shareContext 36%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.63
78% Box shareContext 72%
16% ConversionContext 17%
2.75 OffsidesContext 1.17
11.13 Shots allowedContext 14.50
2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13
4.13 BlocksContext 2.38
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
81% Save rateContext 59%
53% PossessionIn forecast 51%
458 PassesContext 454
377 Accurate passesContext 378
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.81
11.38 FoulsContext 13.38
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.89
90% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.30 ShotsContext 15.00
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
41% On target shareContext 32%
13.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
75% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 14%
2.78 OffsidesContext 1.14
11.90 Shots allowedContext 14.50
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
3.90 BlocksContext 2.70
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
75% Save rateContext 61%
51% PossessionIn forecast 52%
461 PassesContext 459
379 Accurate passesContext 384
82% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.77
11.90 FoulsContext 12.90
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
KVC Westerlo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 13 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +6.9 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · Antwerp5–11.8 xPts
  • W20 SepA · St. Truiden2–00.9 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Standard Liege4–21.4 xPts
  • W5 SepA · KV Mechelen4–01.0 xPts
  • D30 AugH · Zulte Waregem2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise KVC Westerlo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Feb7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways159 km165 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
KVC Westerlo Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Antwerp (H) 5–1, 11 Oct
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega 4A. Lapage 5Seiji Kimura 2L. Flø
14C. Sandra 45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito 13I. Sakamoto 39T. Van den Keybus
9N. Bassette

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
KVC Westerlo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.25
KVC Westerlo · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo
Antwerp W 2–0 A W 5–1 H
Lommel United W 5–0 H L 0–4 A
St. Truiden W 3–0 A W 2–0 A
Zulte Waregem D 0–0 H D 2–2 H
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Union St. Gilloise wins2 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.80 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%
  • 8 Aug 2026KVC Westerlo1–5Union St. Gilloise
  • 1 Mar 2026KVC Westerlo0–0Union St. Gilloise
  • 27 Sep 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0KVC Westerlo
  • 10 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–2KVC Westerlo
  • 29 Oct 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 2.752.50
Conceded per game 0.502.13
Match goals 3.254.63
Over 1.5 88%100%
Over 2.5 63%88%
Over 3.5 38%88%
Both teams scored 38%63%
Clean sheets 63%25%
Failed to score 13%13%
Games88
Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 2.302.10
Conceded per game 0.701.90
Match goals 3.004.00
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 30%70%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won5.883.50
Corners conceded3.255.75
Match total9.139.2510.01
Over 8.563% 5/875% 6/8
Over 9.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.881.25
Opponent cards1.881.63
Match total3.762.883.36
Over 3.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/838% 3/8
Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won4.803.90
Corners conceded3.905.30
Match total8.709.2010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.001.40
Opponent cards1.901.80
Match total3.903.203.36
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
KVC Westerlo8 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
6 0-15
1 4 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 4 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
7 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 5 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Antwerp Feb 2016:00 KV Mechelen SK Beveren Feb 2016:00 Club Brugge KV Lommel United Feb 2016:00 Zulte Waregem Anderlecht Feb 2016:00 Gent RAAL La Louvière Feb 2016:00 Kortrijk Genk Feb 2016:00 St. Truiden Cercle Brugge Feb 2016:00 Charleroi Standard Liege Feb 2016:00 Union St. Gilloise KVC Westerlo Feb 2016:00