Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Feb 8 · 15:00 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 49 pts · 23 played
First leg0–0 2–1Full time
RAAL La Louvière 15th · 24 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Union St. Gilloise had 6.9 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 8.8 and had to travel 42 km.

Away travel42 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière12%
Expected goals 1.86 – 0.68
Union St. Gilloise66%
Draw21%
RAAL La Louvière14%
Expected goals 2.11 – 0.85
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière12%
Expected goals 1.86 – 0.68
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière16%
Expected goals 1.66 – 0.76
Union St. Gilloise66%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière12%
Expected goals 1.95 – 0.72
Over 2.5 47% Both score 42% Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

No weather data yet

RefereeNicolas Laforge
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.34
  • Matches 35

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseRAAL La Louvière
59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 17
62 AttackIn forecast 15
74 DefenceIn forecast 15
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseRAAL La Louvière
1.65 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.87
0.52 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.86
0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.01
83% Scored inContext 61%
52% Clean sheetsContext 35%
14.65 ShotsContext 9.35
5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.86
37% On target shareContext 29%
11.55 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
75% Box shareContext 68%
11% ConversionContext 9%
2.89 OffsidesContext 2.29
8.52 Shots allowedContext 11.70
3.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.64
2.59 BlocksContext 3.00
2.61 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.55
80% Save rateContext 77%
53% PossessionIn forecast 36%
421 PassesContext 271
341 Accurate passesContext 195
81% Pass accuracyContext 72%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.78
12.43 FoulsContext 11.17
9.35 Fouls sufferedContext 11.39
2.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04
This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 0.96
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19
-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.70 ShotsContext 10.00
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44
38% On target shareContext 31%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.11
68% Box shareContext 68%
9% ConversionContext 10%
3.57 OffsidesContext 2.29
9.40 Shots allowedContext 12.60
3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70
3.33 BlocksContext 3.11
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
73% Save rateContext 70%
46% PossessionIn forecast 40%
391 PassesContext 306
310 Accurate passesContext 231
79% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.79
11.20 FoulsContext 10.70
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
RAAL La Louvière
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel42 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise RAAL La Louvière
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Feb8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km42 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.27.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
1V. Chambaere(G)
48F. Leysen 26R. Sykes 5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho 6K. Van de Perre 17R. Schoofs 27L. Patris
23B. Zeneli
12P. David 30R. Florucz
RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego 99Y. Okou 13M. Maisonneuve
3N. Gillot 5T. Lutonda 15S. Lahssaini 11J. Liongola
98Owen Maes
7P. Fall 22J. Afriyie

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.82points per game · 11 home games
W-D-L
10-1-0
Scored
2.18
Conceded
0.18
RAAL La Louvière · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games
W-D-L
2-4-5
Scored
1.18
Conceded
1.55

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseRAAL La Louvière
Club Brugge KV W 1–0 HL 0–1 A W 3–2 AW 1–0 H
OH Leuven D 0–0 AW 5–0 H D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
KV Mechelen W 1–0 HD 1–1 A L 2–3 A
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 AW 2–0 H W 2–1 H
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 HW 4–1 A D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Charleroi D 1–1 AW 3–1 H D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Gent D 1–1 HW 3–2 A D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Anderlecht L 0–1 AW 2–0 H L 0–1 H
St. Truiden W 2–0 H L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
KVC Westerlo W 2–0 H L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
Genk W 2–1 A D 1–1 A
Dender W 1–0 A L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
Standard Liege W 3–0 H L 0–2 H
Antwerp D 1–1 A L 1–3 A
Points48 of 66 · 2.18 per game23 of 66 · 1.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws0 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%
  • 24 Aug 2025RAAL La Louvière0–0Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 1.650.87
Conceded per game 0.521.13
Match goals 2.172.00 2.54
Over 1.5 70%57%
Over 2.5 26%43% 47%
Over 3.5 17%17%
Both teams scored 39%52% 42%
Clean sheets 52%35%
Failed to score 17%39%
Games2323
Union St. GilloiseRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 0.501.50
Match goals 1.502.50 2.54
Over 1.5 60%70%
Over 2.5 0%60% 47%
Over 3.5 0%30%
Both teams scored 40%70% 42%
Clean sheets 50%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won5.434.48
Corners conceded3.903.87
Match total9.338.359.77
Over 8.557% 12/2148% 11/23
Over 9.552% 11/2135% 8/23
Over 10.538% 8/2130% 7/23
Cards
Cards2.261.74
Opponent cards2.221.48
Match total4.483.224.09
Over 3.565% 15/2348% 11/23
Over 4.565% 15/2322% 5/23
Union St. GilloiseRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.295.40
Corners conceded3.714.60
Match total8.0010.009.77
Over 8.543% 3/780% 8/10
Over 9.529% 2/750% 5/10
Over 10.514% 1/750% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.401.60
Opponent cards2.101.60
Match total4.503.204.09
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nicolas Laforge 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.34league 3.88
Red cards0.14league 0.20
Cards 5+49%league 41%
Fouls22.4league 23.0
Penalties0.34league 0.29
Home wins43%league 40%
Union St. Gilloise5 with this referee
Record5-0-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.2 Pens for · against3 · 0
  • W22 Nov 25H · Cercle Brugge2–02
  • W27 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo2–03
  • W25 Feb 24H · Standard Liege2–11
  • W31 Jan 24H · RWDM3–22
  • W23 Dec 23A · AS Eupen2–11
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W10 Aug 25H · Charleroi1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise23 games · scored 38 · conceded 12
4 2 0-15
5 16-30
6 3 31-45
5 2 46-60
8 61-75
10 5 76-90
RAAL La Louvière23 games · scored 20 · conceded 26
1 4 0-15
5 4 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
8 9 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
1 1 76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo St. Truiden 04 Zulte Waregem Dender 10 Charleroi Cercle Brugge 34 Gent OH Leuven 13 Genk Anderlecht 20 Union St. Gilloise RAAL La Louvière 21 Club Brugge KV Standard Liege 30 KV Mechelen Antwerp 20