Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Feb 8 · 15:00 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 49 pts · 23 played
First leg0–0 2–1Full time
RAAL La Louvière 15th · 24 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Union St. Gilloise65.2%fair odds 1.53
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.45
RAAL La Louvière12.3%fair odds 8.14
Expected goals1.86 – 0.68total 2.54
Likeliest score1–014.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Union St. Gilloise

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

RAAL La Louvière

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Union St. Gilloise ↓ · RAAL La Louvière →0123456+
08.44.81.80.40.10.00.0
114.210.53.40.80.10.00.0
213.79.33.10.70.10.00.0
38.55.81.90.40.10.00.0
44.02.70.90.20.00.00.0
51.51.00.30.10.00.00.0
6+0.60.40.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–014.2%7.06
  • 2–013.7%7.30
  • 1–110.5%9.56
  • 2–19.3%10.80
  • 3–08.5%11.74
  • 0–08.4%11.90
  • 3–15.8%17.37
  • 0–14.8%20.83
  • 4–04.0%25.18
  • 1–23.4%29.78

Winning margin

19.2% Union St. Gilloise by 3+ fair 5.21
20.4% Union St. Gilloise by 2 fair 4.89
25.6% Union St. Gilloise by 1 fair 3.91
22.5% Draw fair 4.45
8.9% RAAL La Louvière by 1 fair 11.18
2.7% RAAL La Louvière by 2 fair 37.22
0.7% RAAL La Louvière by 3+ fair 153.51

Goal distribution

Total goals

8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+

Union St. Gilloise goals

15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

RAAL La Louvière goals

51%0
34%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Union St. Gilloise win 65.2% 66.0% -0.7 pp
Draw 22.5% 21.6% +0.8 pp
RAAL La Louvière win 12.3% 12.4% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 46.7% 49.9% -3.2 pp
Both teams score 42.1% 44.5% -2.4 pp
Expected goals Union St. Gilloise 1.86 1.95 -0.09
Expected goals RAAL La Louvière 0.68 0.72 -0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Union St. Gilloise win65.2%1.53
  • Draw22.5%4.45
  • RAAL La Louvière win12.3%8.14
  • Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw87.7%1.14
  • Double chance Union St. Gilloise or RAAL La Louvière77.5%1.29
  • Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw34.8%2.88
  • Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise84.2%1.19
  • Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière15.8%6.31

Goals

  • Over 0.591.6%1.09
  • Over 1.572.6%1.38
  • Over 2.546.7%2.14
  • Over 3.525.1%3.98
  • Over 4.511.4%8.75
  • Under 1.527.4%3.65
  • Under 2.553.3%1.87
  • Under 3.574.9%1.34

Both teams to score

  • Yes42.1%2.38
  • No57.9%1.73
  • Yes and over 2.531.6%3.17
  • Union St. Gilloise win and yes22.8%4.39
  • Draw and yes14.1%7.11
  • RAAL La Louvière win and yes5.2%19.25

Team goals

  • Union St. Gilloise over 0.584.5%1.18
  • Union St. Gilloise over 1.555.6%1.80
  • Union St. Gilloise over 2.528.7%3.49
  • RAAL La Louvière over 0.549.1%2.04
  • RAAL La Louvière over 1.514.8%6.78
  • RAAL La Louvière over 2.53.1%31.96
  • Union St. Gilloise clean sheet50.9%1.97
  • RAAL La Louvière clean sheet15.5%6.46
  • Union St. Gilloise win to nil42.5%2.36
  • RAAL La Louvière win to nil7.1%14.11

Handicap

  • Union St. Gilloise −1.539.7%2.52
  • Union St. Gilloise −2.519.2%5.21
  • RAAL La Louvière +1.560.3%1.66
  • RAAL La Louvière +2.580.8%1.24
  • RAAL La Louvière −1.53.3%29.96
  • Union St. Gilloise +1.596.7%1.03

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored189 Favourite won42.9% Avg chance given to result36.8% 1X2 Brier0.642 Over 2.5 called right50.3% BTTS called right50.8%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3638.0%36.1%
40–50%9044.8%35.6%
50–60%4354.5%51.2%
60–70%1664.4%75.0%
70–80%473.5%50.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 151 of 189 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.65050.6410
Avg chance given to result36.5%37.4%
Favourite won41.7%41.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 151 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 189 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.