Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee

Union St. Gilloise 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–1Full time

Real Sociedad 21st · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Union St. Gilloise. Union St. Gilloise were without K. Mac Allister and A. Zorgane. Real Sociedad were without J. Aramburu. Union St. Gilloise had 4.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 4.1 and had to travel 979 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel979 kmRest days4.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Union St. Gilloise57%

Draw21%

Real Sociedad22%

Expected goals 2.05 – 1.20

Union St. Gilloise55%

Draw24%

Real Sociedad21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Union St. Gilloise59%

Draw21%

Real Sociedad20%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.12

Union St. Gilloise49%

Draw23%

Real Sociedad28%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.35

Union St. Gilloise57%

Draw21%

Real Sociedad22%

Expected goals 2.05 – 1.20

Over 2.5 63% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heverlee)

19°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 70%

RefereeGoga Kikacheishvili

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 16

Team strength

Union St. Gilloise

Real Sociedad

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

62 AttackIn forecast 62

74 DefenceIn forecast 48

85 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack−6%

Defense risk+3%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. Gilloise

Real Sociedad

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

+1.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.60 ShotsContext 13.00

7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

43% On target shareContext 38%

13.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

77% Box shareContext 55%

15% ConversionContext 11%

2.90 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.60 Shots allowedContext 16.00

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10

4.30 BlocksContext 3.70

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

74% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

462 PassesContext 461

380 Accurate passesContext 389

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.17 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.20 FoulsContext 13.10

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise WWWWD

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel24 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 85 · 13 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected

D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
W5 SepA · Charleroi3–21.6 xPts

Real Sociedad WLLWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel979 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 73 · 9 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts
L13 SepH · Atletico Madrid0–31.3 xPts
W7 SepA · Elche3–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Union St. Gilloise	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Oct	4.1La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	24 km	979 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

12H. Koffi(G)

55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani

6K. Van de Perre

11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris

38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13Unai Marrero(G)

17Sergio Gómez 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 5Zubeldia

11Gonçalo Guedes 21Y. Herrera 4Jon Gorrotxategi 12Job Ochieng

10Mikel Oyarzabal 24L. Sučić

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Union St. Gilloise Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.08 goals

Attack line −37.1% · Defence line −45.7% of weighted minutes

DEF K. Mac Allister Starter 6.93 Def −13.1%
MID A. Zorgane Starter 7.03 Att −11.7% Def −6.1%
DEF R. Sykes Starter 7.13 Def −10.3%
DEF O. Kričfaluši Starter 7.14 Def −9.6%
MID A. Ait El Hadj Starter 6.94 Att −8.7% Def −4.6%
MID R. Schoofs Rotation 6.82 Att −3.7% Def −1.9%

+4 more with impact

Real Sociedad Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −17.4% of weighted minutes

DEF J. Aramburu Starter 6.57 Def −15.8%
DEF Luken Beitia Rotation 6.27 Def −1.4%
DEF Odriozola Depth 7.00 Def −0.2%

Total impact vs full squads

Union St. Gilloise-2.1 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Real Sociedad+1.8 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home No home games yet this season.

Real Sociedad · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Union St. Gilloise	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.26
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	61%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Union St. Gilloise	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	2.70	1.40
Conceded per game	0.70	1.80
Match goals	3.40	3.20	3.26
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	60%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Union St. Gilloise	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	10.00
Corners conceded	5.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	13.00	10.69
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	6.00	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Union St. Gilloise	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	7.30
Corners conceded	4.10	4.60
Match total	9.00	11.90	10.69
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	2.70
Match total	4.00	5.20	3.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Goga Kikacheishvili 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.44league 3.28

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+63%league 39%

Fouls25.0league 25.2

Penalties0.38league 0.17

Home wins50%league 44%

Union St. Gilloise

No previous matches with this referee.

Real Sociedad

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.