Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
3rd · 7 pts · 3 played
DWW
3–0Full time
Standard Liege
5th · 7 pts · 3 played
WDW
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 31). Union St. Gilloise usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union St. Gilloise had 7 days of rest, Standard Liege 6.1 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Standard Liege18%
Union St. Gilloise57%
Draw24%
Standard Liege19%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw24%
Standard Liege18%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Draw25%
Standard Liege24%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Standard Liege19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 25
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseStandard Liege
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
62
AttackIn forecast
29
74
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseStandard Liege
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
16.00
ShotsContext
8.33
8.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
54%
On target shareContext
60%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
70%
Box shareContext
63%
19%
ConversionContext
20%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.33
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.00
BlocksContext
5.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
70%
Save rateContext
88%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
403
PassesContext
364
328
Accurate passesContext
289
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.07
12.67
FoulsContext
11.00
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.10
ShotsContext
10.70
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
42%
On target shareContext
43%
12.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
71%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.44
10.80
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.50
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
68%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
444
PassesContext
438
350
Accurate passesContext
351
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.10
Team ratingContext
7.05
14.50
FoulsContext
10.80
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Aug | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
8A. Zorgane
24C. Vanhoutte
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
13K. Rodríguez
30R. Florucz
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
29D. Dierckx
22A. Calut
94C. Nielsen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
13M. Fossey
17R. Saïd
7T. Mohr
9T. Henry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Standard Liege-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Standard Liege · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 25 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1Standard Liege
- 4 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.33 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.33 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.00 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.33 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.70 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 3.70 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 3.70
Red cards0.20league 0.19
Cards 5+40%league 33%
Fouls22.0league 23.2
Penalties0.12league 0.44
Home wins44%league 44%
Union St. Gilloise4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D17 Mar 24A · Antwerp1–15
- W3 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–11
- W24 Sep 23A · Cercle Brugge2–03
- W28 Jul 23H · Anderlecht2–05
Standard Liege1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Jan 24H · Antwerp0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise3 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Standard Liege3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
