Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union St. Gilloise
3rd · 7 pts · 3 played
DWW
3–0Full time
Standard Liege
5th · 7 pts · 3 played
WDW
Union St. Gilloise58.4%fair odds 1.71
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.28
Standard Liege18.2%fair odds 5.49
Expected goals1.88 – 0.95total 2.83
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union St. Gilloise ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%8.99
- 1–010.5%9.51
- 2–010.4%9.63
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 3–06.5%15.41
- 0–06.5%15.46
- 3–16.2%16.15
- 0–15.1%19.70
- 1–25.0%19.84
- 2–24.7%21.17
Winning margin
16.4%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 6.09
18.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 5.51
23.9%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.19
23.4%
Draw
fair 4.28
11.9%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 8.43
4.7%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 21.30
1.7%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 60.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Union St. Gilloise goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Standard Liege goals
39%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 58.4% | 58.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 18.2% | 18.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 55.0% | -1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.6% | 53.9% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.88 | 1.89 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 0.95 | 0.99 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union St. Gilloise win58.4%1.71
- Draw23.4%4.28
- Standard Liege win18.2%5.49
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw81.8%1.22
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or Standard Liege76.6%1.30
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw41.6%2.40
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise76.2%1.31
- Draw no bet Standard Liege23.8%4.21
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.9%1.28
- Over 2.553.7%1.86
- Over 3.531.5%3.18
- Over 4.515.7%6.37
- Under 1.522.1%4.53
- Under 2.546.3%2.16
- Under 3.568.5%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes52.6%1.90
- No47.4%2.11
- Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes26.4%3.79
- Draw and yes16.9%5.92
- Standard Liege win and yes9.4%10.69
Team goals
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.584.7%1.18
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.555.9%1.79
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.529.0%3.45
- Standard Liege over 0.561.5%1.63
- Standard Liege over 1.524.7%4.04
- Standard Liege over 2.57.2%13.88
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet38.5%2.60
- Standard Liege clean sheet15.3%6.52
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil32.1%3.12
- Standard Liege win to nil8.9%11.28
Handicap
- Union St. Gilloise −1.534.6%2.89
- Union St. Gilloise −2.516.4%6.09
- Standard Liege +1.565.4%1.53
- Standard Liege +2.583.6%1.20
- Standard Liege −1.56.4%15.73
- Union St. Gilloise +1.593.6%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored27
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result39.2%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right59.3%
BTTS called right59.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.8% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 43.1% | 38.5% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.7% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 27 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Gent40·27·33
- ✓Zulte Waregem 0–1 Club Brugge KV22·25·53
- ✓OH Leuven 1–2 Genk32·27·41
- ✓Antwerp 3–1 OH Leuven58·24·18
- ✓Standard Liege 2–1 Genk39·27·34
- ✗Anderlecht 2–3 Zulte Waregem63·22·15
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Charleroi45·28·27
- ✗Gent 2–3 Union St. Gilloise38·26·35
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–1 KV Mechelen37·28·35
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–0 Cercle Brugge67·20·13
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 27 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.