Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Utrecht
13th · 24 pts · 20 played
DLLLD
First leg2–3
0–1Full time
Feyenoord
3rd · 39 pts · 21 played
DDLWL
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 27). Utrecht had 6.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 6.9 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Utrecht32%
Draw27%
Feyenoord41%
Utrecht31%
Draw27%
Feyenoord42%
Utrecht31%
Draw27%
Feyenoord42%
Utrecht25%
Draw26%
Feyenoord49%
Utrecht32%
Draw28%
Feyenoord41%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 32
Team strength
UtrechtFeyenoord
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
32
AttackIn forecast
76
31
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtFeyenoord
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.43
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
85%
Scored inContext
90%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
14.50
ShotsContext
17.10
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.52
33%
On target shareContext
38%
9.45
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
65%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.65
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.94
BlocksContext
2.95
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
68%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
406
PassesContext
444
327
Accurate passesContext
372
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.01
10.70
FoulsContext
9.48
10.85
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.83
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.80
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
61%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.30
BlocksContext
3.33
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
65%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
399
PassesContext
442
328
Accurate passesContext
371
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.00
FoulsContext
10.50
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,706 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Feyenoord
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel48 km3,798 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,706 km | 3,798 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.4 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
23N. Vesterlund
8C. Bozdoğan
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
11K. Karlsson
20D. de Wit
77Ángel Alarcón
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
21A. Ahmedhodžić
4T. Watanabe
20M. Deijl
6I. Hwang
28O. Targhalline
32Aymen Sliti
10L. Valente
23A. Hadj Moussa
7J. Moder
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Feyenoord-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
1.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Feyenoord · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | L 3–4 HW 4–0 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| NAC Breda | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Ajax | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 1–0 H | L 2–4 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | D 3–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Groningen | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 6–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 4–2 HW 7–0 A |
| Points | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game | 36 of 60 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Utrecht wins0 draws3 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 5 Oct 2025Feyenoord3–2Utrecht
- 12 Jan 2025Feyenoord1–2Utrecht
- 27 Oct 2024Utrecht0–2Feyenoord
- 3 Sep 2023Utrecht1–5Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.95 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 71% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 62% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 10% | |
| Games | 20 | 21 |
| Utrecht | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.40 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.72 | 6.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.95 | |
| Match total | 9.39 | 10.84 | 10.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 8/18 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 8/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.35 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.24 | |
| Match total | 3.35 | 2.81 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 3/20 | 14% 3/21 | |
| Utrecht | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 10.22 | 10.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.28league 3.39
Red cards0.28league 0.20
Cards 5+16%league 31%
Fouls18.6league 21.7
Penalties0.28league 0.26
Home wins44%league 44%
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Oct 25H · FC Volendam3–11
- L15 Mar 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–10
Feyenoord3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Oct 24A · GO Ahead Eagles5–12
- W18 Feb 24H · Waalwijk1–00
- W7 Dec 23H · FC Volendam3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht20 games · scored 30 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
7
4
31-45
8
5
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
Feyenoord21 games · scored 51 · conceded 32
3
5
0-15
10
5
16-30
11
3
31-45
10
6
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 23 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
