Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Genk usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Utrecht had 4.3 days of rest, Genk 5.2 and had to travel 128 km.
Away travel128 kmRest days4.3 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Utrecht41%
Draw26%
Genk32%
Utrecht42%
Draw27%
Genk31%
Utrecht42%
Draw26%
Genk32%
Utrecht34%
Draw27%
Genk40%
Utrecht42%
Draw27%
Genk31%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Hennessy
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
Utrecht
Genk
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
32
AttackIn forecast
46
31
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtGenk
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.50
ShotsContext
11.17
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
40%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
50%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.60
15.17
Shots allowedContext
12.33
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
4.20
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
74%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
339
PassesContext
433
267
Accurate passesContext
365
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.00
FoulsContext
11.67
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
100%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.50
ShotsContext
15.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
32%
On target shareContext
38%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
60%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.40
Shots allowedContext
12.90
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.67
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
64%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
344
PassesContext
543
272
Accurate passesContext
467
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.40
FoulsContext
10.40
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel128 km291 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 5.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 128 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 291 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
25M. Brouwer(G)
55D. Murkin
44M. Eerdhuijzen
40M. Didden
23N. Vesterlund
8C. Bozdoğan
27A. Engwanda
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
91S. Haller
22Miguel Rodríguez
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
14Y. Sor
20K. Karetsas
38D. Heymans
10J. Ito
23A. Bibout
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genk+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Genk · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Utrecht | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 7.50 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.84 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Utrecht | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.11 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hennessy 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 4.12
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+44%league 42%
Fouls27.3league 24.2
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins67%league 49%
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht6 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Genk6 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
6
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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