Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Utrecht
9th · 38 pts · 27 played
WDWDW
First leg2–2
2–0Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
13th · 32 pts · 27 played
LWWLW
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Utrecht had 7.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 6.9 and had to travel 73 km.
Away travel73 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Utrecht59%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles18%
Utrecht52%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles23%
Utrecht59%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles18%
Utrecht52%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles23%
Utrecht59%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 50
Team strength
UtrechtGO Ahead Eagles
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
32
AttackIn forecast
29
31
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtGO Ahead Eagles
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
81%
Scored inContext
85%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
14.04
ShotsContext
11.04
4.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.04
34%
On target shareContext
44%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.39
68%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.53
OffsidesContext
1.81
11.78
Shots allowedContext
17.67
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.52
3.76
BlocksContext
6.04
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.19
72%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
396
PassesContext
410
315
Accurate passesContext
334
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.96
FoulsContext
9.04
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
70%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.60
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.14
BlocksContext
6.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
76%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
390
PassesContext
376
306
Accurate passesContext
300
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.70
FoulsContext
8.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km244 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel73 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 73 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 244 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
77Ángel Alarcón
18A. Stepanov
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
29A. Adelgaard
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
19J. Slory
9S. Sigurðarson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 0.92
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Heracles | D 0–0 AW 4–0 H | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–0 HL 1–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| NAC Breda | D 1–1 A | W 6–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A |
| Ajax | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 37 of 78 · 1.42 per game | 31 of 78 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Utrecht wins3 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Utrecht
- 6 Apr 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Utrecht
- 15 Dec 2024Utrecht3–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 10 Dec 2023GO Ahead Eagles0–2Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.26 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 63% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 11.00 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 85% 23/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.26 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 5/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 11.01 | 11.80 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.28league 3.23
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+30%league 27%
Fouls19.7league 21.4
Penalties0.28league 0.23
Home wins46%league 45%
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Dec 25A · NAC Breda1–12
- L5 Oct 25A · Feyenoord2–30
GO Ahead Eagles6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Nov 25A · Heracles2–43
- W21 Sep 25A · PEC Zwolle2–02
- D27 Apr 25A · Almere City FC0–01
- L1 Dec 24A · Twente2–32
- W6 Oct 24H · Heracles4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht27 games · scored 40 · conceded 31
4
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
10
4
31-45
9
7
46-60
7
3
61-75
7
8
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles26 games · scored 43 · conceded 43
7
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
9
10
31-45
6
8
46-60
8
6
61-75
10
9
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
