Utrecht vs Lyon – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht

0–1Full time

Lyon

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 41). Utrecht had 5 days of rest, Lyon 6 and had to travel 703 km.

Away travel703 kmRest days5 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Utrecht33%

Draw26%

Lyon40%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.48

Utrecht33%

Draw27%

Lyon39%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.40

Utrecht33%

Draw26%

Lyon40%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.48

Utrecht27%

Draw25%

Lyon48%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.66

Utrecht33%

Draw27%

Lyon39%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.40

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Utrecht)

No weather data yet

Referee · RomaniaHoratiu Fesnic

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 2

Team strength

Utrecht

Lyon

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

32 AttackIn forecast 55

31 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Utrecht

Lyon

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

+0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.38 ShotsContext 13.60

5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

39% On target shareContext 34%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

66% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.57 BlocksContext 3.80

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

78% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 56%

439 PassesContext 492

358 Accurate passesContext 433

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.07 Team ratingContext 7.08

9.25 FoulsContext 13.60

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km264 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lyon

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel703 km1,133 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	703 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	264 km	1,133 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.7	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 24N. Viergever 3M. van der Hoorn 2S. Horemans

55D. Murkin 27A. Engwanda 23N. Vesterlund

21G. Zechiël

22Miguel Rodríguez 91S. Haller

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1D. Greif(G)

3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 21R. Kluivert

39Mathys de Carvalho 23T. Morton

11M. Fofana 10P. Šulc 7A. Karabec

20M. Satriano

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Utrecht+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lyon+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home No home games yet this season.

Lyon · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Utrecht	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	1.40
Conceded per game	0.83	0.60
Match goals	2.67	2.00	2.80
Over 1.5	67%	40%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	53%
Over 3.5	33%	20%
Both teams scored	33%	20%	57%
Clean sheets	33%	80%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	6	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.18
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.55
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Utrecht	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	6.40
Corners conceded	4.38	4.90
Match total	9.13	11.30	9.18
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.70	2.10
Match total	4.50	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Horatiu Fesnic Romania · 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 4.55

Red cards0.50league 0.00

Cards 5+50%league 55%

Fouls37.0league 25.2

Penalties0.50league 0.18

Home wins100%league 45%

Utrecht

No previous matches with this referee.

Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.