Utrecht vs NAC Breda – 2 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, May 2 · 15:30 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht 8th · 44 pts · 31 played WWLWL

First leg1–1 2–0Full time

NAC Breda 17th · 25 pts · 31 played LLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht were slight favourites.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NAC Breda. Utrecht had 6.2 days of rest, NAC Breda 6.9 and had to travel 61 km.

Away travel61 kmRest days6.2 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Utrecht60%

Draw22%

NAC Breda19%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.08

Utrecht62%

Draw22%

NAC Breda16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.91

Utrecht60%

Draw22%

NAC Breda19%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.08

Utrecht52%

Draw24%

NAC Breda24%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.21

Utrecht60%

Draw22%

NAC Breda18%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.04

Over 2.5 61% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Utrecht)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 39

Team strength

Utrecht

NAC Breda

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 13

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

32 AttackIn forecast 19

31 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Utrecht

NAC Breda

1.58 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.97

1.32 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

81% Scored inContext 58%

23% Clean sheetsContext 16%

14.16 ShotsContext 13.45

5.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.34

36% On target shareContext 30%

9.65 Shots in the boxContext 8.17

68% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 7%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.87

12.03 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.68 BlocksContext 3.00

3.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.54

71% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 49%

386 PassesContext 395

306 Accurate passesContext 312

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.65 FoulsContext 10.77

10.48 Fouls sufferedContext 12.65

1.45 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

80% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 14.80

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

40% On target shareContext 27%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

74% Box shareContext 54%

13% ConversionContext 5%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.75

13.00 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.29 BlocksContext 3.25

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

76% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 51%

344 PassesContext 388

262 Accurate passesContext 303

76% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.62

10.50 FoulsContext 10.00

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km96 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NAC Breda

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel61 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	NAC Breda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Apr	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	61 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	96 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 44M. Eerdhuijzen 3M. van der Hoorn 23N. Vesterlund

21G. Zechiël 20D. de Wit 27A. Engwanda

10Y. Cathline 18A. Stepanov 77Ángel Alarcón

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-4-2

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 8C. Leemans 15E. Mahmutović 3D. Odoi

14K. Sowah 16M. Balard 10M. Nassoh 25C. Valerius

24A. Ayew 90L. Holtby

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht Absences are shown before kick-off

NAC Breda Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Utrecht+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
NAC Breda+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.80points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-3-4
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 0.87

NAC Breda · Away 0.53points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-9
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Utrecht	NAC Breda
Excelsior	L 0–5 AW 4–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Telstar	W 4–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 3–4 AL 1–2 H	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 0–6 AW 1–0 H
Twente	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Heracles	D 0–0 AW 4–0 H	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 2–0 HL 1–4 A	L 0–1 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H
Groningen	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A	D 3–3 HL 0–2 A
Heerenveen	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	D 3–3 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
FC Volendam	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Ajax	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Points	43 of 90 · 1.43 per game	24 of 90 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Utrecht wins1 draws0 NAC Breda wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

14 Dec 2025NAC Breda1–1Utrecht
1 Mar 2025Utrecht1–0NAC Breda
24 Aug 2024NAC Breda1–2Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.58	0.97
Conceded per game	1.32	1.71
Match goals	2.90	2.68	3.14
Over 1.5	81%	68%
Over 2.5	52%	52%	61%
Over 3.5	35%	26%
Both teams scored	61%	48%	58%
Clean sheets	23%	16%
Failed to score	19%	42%
Games	31	31

	Utrecht	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	0.70
Conceded per game	1.30	1.90
Match goals	3.20	2.60	3.14
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	5.68
Corners conceded	4.61	4.10
Match total	9.50	9.78	10.29
Over 8.5	61% 17/28	65% 20/31
Over 9.5	46% 13/28	52% 16/31
Over 10.5	39% 11/28	48% 15/31
Cards
Cards	1.52	1.77
Opponent cards	1.77	2.00
Match total	3.29	3.77	3.30
Over 3.5	42% 13/31	52% 16/31
Over 4.5	16% 5/31	39% 12/31

	Utrecht	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	6.70
Corners conceded	4.22	4.30
Match total	9.78	11.00	10.29
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.10	1.90
Match total	2.80	3.30	3.30
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.23league 3.13

Red cards0.26league 0.17

Cards 5+23%league 25%

Fouls22.2league 21.2

Penalties0.31league 0.22

Home wins38%league 45%

Utrecht3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D28 Sep 25H · Heerenveen2–22
L22 Dec 24H · Fortuna Sittard2–54
W5 Oct 24H · Waalwijk3–21

NAC Breda2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 2

D13 Sep 25A · Twente2–21
D29 Mar 25H · Groningen1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.