Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Utrecht
10th · 30 pts · 23 played
LDLWW
First leg2–0
1–1Full time
PEC Zwolle
13th · 26 pts · 23 played
WLWLL
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Utrecht had 7.7 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days7.7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Utrecht56%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle20%
Utrecht52%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle23%
Utrecht56%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle20%
Utrecht49%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle27%
Utrecht56%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle20%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 26
Team strength
UtrechtPEC Zwolle
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
32
AttackIn forecast
17
31
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtPEC Zwolle
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
83%
Scored inContext
87%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.96
ShotsContext
9.09
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.64
66%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.05
12.04
Shots allowedContext
16.57
4.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.17
3.85
BlocksContext
3.96
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.32
69%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
399
PassesContext
369
319
Accurate passesContext
290
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.74
FoulsContext
10.65
10.78
Fouls sufferedContext
12.13
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
70%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.00
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
44%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
65%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.30
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.30
BlocksContext
3.50
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
65%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
406
PassesContext
390
330
Accurate passesContext
309
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.00
FoulsContext
11.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km432 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel81 km102 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 432 km | 102 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
77Ángel Alarcón
18A. Stepanov
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
8Z. Buurmeester
34N. Fichtinger
25T. Oosting
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
9Y. Namli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.00
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-7
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–6 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| NAC Breda | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Ajax | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | L 2–8 A |
| Points | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game | 26 of 66 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Utrecht wins1 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 31 Aug 2025PEC Zwolle0–2Utrecht
- 1 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle3–3Utrecht
- 11 Aug 2024Utrecht1–0PEC Zwolle
- 27 Aug 2023PEC Zwolle1–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.57 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 13% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 5.95 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.09 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 11/20 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 3.43 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 5/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 6.90 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.60 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.96league 3.30
Red cards0.19league 0.19
Cards 5+23%league 30%
Fouls21.9league 21.6
Penalties0.08league 0.25
Home wins38%league 44%
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Nov 25A · Telstar1–12
- L9 Feb 25H · Almere City FC0–11
- W8 Nov 24H · Heracles1–00
PEC Zwolle3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Jan 26A · Twente1–13
- L27 Sep 25A · FC Volendam1–23
- D27 Oct 23A · Vitesse1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht23 games · scored 35 · conceded 30
2
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
8
4
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
7
7
76-90
PEC Zwolle22 games · scored 33 · conceded 47
9
2
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
4
61-75
3
10
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
5
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
