Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 35). Absences weigh more on PSV Eindhoven. Utrecht had 6.8 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.7 and had to travel 76 km.
Away travel76 kmRest days6.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Utrecht18%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven60%
Utrecht17%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven60%
Utrecht17%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven62%
Utrecht13%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven67%
Utrecht19%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven58%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 46
Team strength
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
32
AttackIn forecast
60
31
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtPSV Eindhoven
1.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.13
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+1.22
88%
Scored inContext
94%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
14.25
ShotsContext
17.56
5.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.13
36%
On target shareContext
41%
9.69
Shots in the boxContext
12.13
67%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
18%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.94
Shots allowedContext
11.56
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
4.23
BlocksContext
3.29
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
69%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
405
PassesContext
546
326
Accurate passesContext
475
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.06
FoulsContext
11.69
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
8.44
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.19
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+1.43
100%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
13.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
35%
On target shareContext
39%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
63%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
23%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.70
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.44
BlocksContext
3.25
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
344
PassesContext
502
267
Accurate passesContext
435
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.00
FoulsContext
10.30
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel76 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 76 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 122 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 28.1 | 20.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
10Y. Cathline
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
22Miguel Rodríguez
20D. de Wit
7V. Jensen
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
10P. Wanner
5I. Perišić
20G. Til
27D. Man
9R. Pepi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
2.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-1
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 0.88
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Ajax | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 1–0 H | W 5–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | W 5–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Feyenoord | L 2–3 A | W 3–2 A |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | W 5–2 H |
| Groningen | L 0–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 1–2 A | W 6–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 4–3 H |
| Points | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game | 43 of 48 · 2.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Utrecht wins2 draws2 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 15 Feb 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2Utrecht
- 1 Dec 2024Utrecht2–5PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Jan 2024Utrecht1–1PSV Eindhoven
- 12 Aug 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.69 | 3.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.38 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 6% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 3.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.10 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 10.51 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.82 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 7/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 6% 1/16 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.50 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.24league 3.38
Red cards0.07league 0.22
Cards 5+11%league 33%
Fouls17.2league 21.8
Penalties0.26league 0.31
Home wins57%league 48%
Utrecht6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L26 Oct 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–41
- L20 Sep 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
- W20 Apr 25H · Ajax4–01
- W12 Jan 25A · Feyenoord2–11
- W24 Nov 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–11
PSV Eindhoven8 with this referee
Record7-0-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W31 Oct 25H · Fortuna Sittard5–20
- W9 Aug 25H · Sparta Rotterdam6–11
- W14 May 25H · Heracles4–10
- W5 Apr 25A · Groningen3–12
- L14 Dec 24A · Heerenveen0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht16 games · scored 27 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
PSV Eindhoven16 games · scored 50 · conceded 20
7
1
0-15
12
1
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
3
46-60
7
7
61-75
7
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 30 · conceded 13
5
0-15
8
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
