Valencia vs Athletic Club – 20 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 16th · 4 pts · 4 played DLWL

2–0Full time

Athletic Club 6th · 9 pts · 4 played WWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Valencia had 6 days of rest, Athletic Club 7.1 and had to travel 472 km.

Away travel472 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Valencia34%

Draw28%

Athletic Club38%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.29

Valencia33%

Draw27%

Athletic Club40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Valencia33%

Draw28%

Athletic Club39%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.30

Valencia27%

Draw28%

Athletic Club45%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.44

Valencia34%

Draw27%

Athletic Club39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.39

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 27

Team strength

Valencia

Athletic Club

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

39 AttackIn forecast 51

52 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Athletic Club

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.43

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

50% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

7.75 ShotsContext 12.75

2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

26% On target shareContext 31%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

53% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

16.25 Shots allowedContext 7.75

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

4.25 BlocksContext 2.67

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

61% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 49%

350 PassesContext 398

279 Accurate passesContext 322

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.57 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.00 FoulsContext 13.00

9.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.75

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

60% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.20 ShotsContext 11.30

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

36% On target shareContext 26%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

64% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.80 Shots allowedContext 8.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.20 BlocksContext 2.88

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

70% Save rateContext 62%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

435 PassesContext 383

360 Accurate passesContext 307

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.60 FoulsContext 14.80

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km605 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Athletic Club

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel472 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	472 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	605 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 4M. Diakhaby 5César Tárrega 20D. Foulquier

16Diego López 8Javi Guerra 22B. Santamaría 11Luis Rioja

7A. Danjuma 19Dani Raba

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 4Aitor Paredes 3Dani Vivian 12Jesús Areso

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

7Álex Berenguer 8Oihan Sancet 23Robert Navarro

9I. Williams

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Absences are shown before kick-off

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+1.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Athletic Club-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Athletic Club · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Valencia wins5 draws4 Athletic Club wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.10 Over 2.530% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

18 May 2025Valencia0–1Athletic Club
28 Aug 2024Athletic Club1–0Valencia
20 Jan 2024Valencia1–0Athletic Club
29 Oct 2023Athletic Club2–2Valencia
11 Feb 2023Valencia1–2Athletic Club
21 Aug 2022Athletic Club1–0Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.50	2.49
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	45%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	50%	25%
Games	4	4

	Valencia	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.50	2.49
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	45%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	50%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	7.00
Corners conceded	5.25	4.25
Match total	11.25	11.25	9.44
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.25
Match total	2.75	4.25	4.28
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	25% 1/4

	Valencia	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.44
Corners conceded	5.40	3.78
Match total	10.20	9.22	9.44
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.60
Opponent cards	1.70	2.00
Match total	3.70	3.60	4.28
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.96

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+44%league 41%

Fouls24.1league 24.8

Penalties0.22league 0.35

Home wins33%league 48%

Valencia3 with this referee

Record0-3-0 Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

D26 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–20
D30 Mar 24H · Mallorca0–00
D16 Dec 23H · Barcelona1–11

Athletic Club2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W10 Mar 24A · Las Palmas2–03
D11 Dec 23A · Granada CF1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.