Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Valencia had 6.1 days of rest, Barcelona 6 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 3
Valencia21%
Draw26%
Barcelona53%
Valencia16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Valencia21%
Draw26%
Barcelona53%
Valencia16%
Draw23%
Barcelona60%
Valencia22%
Draw26%
Barcelona52%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
RefereeAdrián Cordero
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 53
Team strength
Valencia
Barcelona
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
39
AttackIn forecast
97
52
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaBarcelona
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.54
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
2.24
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
76%
Scored inContext
97%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
11.30
ShotsContext
18.11
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.83
28%
On target shareContext
37%
7.43
Shots in the boxContext
11.84
63%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.61
11.46
Shots allowedContext
8.65
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
2.94
BlocksContext
2.24
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
68%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
405
PassesContext
642
332
Accurate passesContext
578
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.81
FoulsContext
9.73
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
11.65
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.44
30%
On target shareContext
42%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
64%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.44
10.80
Shots allowedContext
7.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
2.75
BlocksContext
2.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
73%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
381
PassesContext
642
309
Accurate passesContext
585
81%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.40
FoulsContext
9.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,838 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Barcelona
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel302 km861 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,838 km | 861 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90.9 | 92 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
21Jesús Vázquez
18Pepelu
5César Tárrega
4Unai Núñez
16Diego López
2G. Rodríguez
23F. Ugrinic
11Luis Rioja
9Hugo Duro
8Javi Guerra
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
25W. Szczęsny(G)
3Alejandro Balde
18Gerard Martín
4R. Araujo
24Eric García
6Gavi
22Marc Bernal
14M. Rashford
20Dani Olmo
7Ferran Torres
9R. Lewandowski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Barcelona+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.50points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.22
Barcelona · Away
2.06points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-5
- Scored
- 2.06
- Conceded
- 1.28
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | W 4–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Elche | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 HL 1–4 A | W 1–0 HW 4–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Alaves | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Espanyol | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 46 of 108 · 1.28 per game | 91 of 108 · 2.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Valencia wins1 draws9 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.90 – 3.20
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 14 Sep 2025Barcelona6–0Valencia
- 26 Jan 2025Barcelona7–1Valencia
- 17 Aug 2024Valencia1–2Barcelona
- 29 Apr 2024Barcelona4–2Valencia
- 16 Dec 2023Valencia1–1Barcelona
- 5 Mar 2023Barcelona1–0Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 2.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 3.43 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 73% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 57% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 3% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Valencia | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 6.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 4.42 | |
| Match total | 9.85 | 11.03 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 20/33 | 81% 29/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 16/33 | 64% 23/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 16/33 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.49 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.03 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 24/37 | 46% 17/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% 18/37 | 35% 13/37 | |
| Valencia | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.30 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrián Cordero 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.25
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 46%
Fouls25.5league 24.5
Penalties0.34league 0.35
Home wins49%league 48%
Valencia3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.7 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W21 May 22H · Celta Vigo2–03
- L13 Feb 22A · Alaves1–23
- L30 Dec 20A · Granada CF1–25
Barcelona3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Feb 25A · Las Palmas2–01
- L30 Nov 24H · Las Palmas1–20
- W15 Mar 21H · Huesca4–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia37 games · scored 43 · conceded 54
5
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
3
7
31-45
8
12
46-60
9
11
61-75
14
13
76-90
Barcelona37 games · scored 94 · conceded 33
16
5
0-15
11
4
16-30
17
11
31-45
13
2
46-60
17
4
61-75
20
7
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
