Valencia vs Celta Vigo – 22 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 22 · 18:30 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia

0–0Full time

Celta Vigo

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Valencia. Valencia had 90.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 90.9 and had to travel 765 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel765 kmRest days90.9 · 90.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Valencia46%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Valencia44%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Valencia47%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.14

Valencia39%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Valencia47%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.17

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

27°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 76%

Heat stress

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 56

Team strength

Valencia

Celta Vigo

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

39 AttackIn forecast 36

52 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Celta Vigo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 7.60

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

32% On target shareContext 40%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

66% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.83

10.80 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.88 BlocksContext 2.90

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

71% Save rateContext 65%

42% PossessionIn forecast 49%

351 PassesContext 477

281 Accurate passesContext 408

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.50 FoulsContext 12.00

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel765 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May	90.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	765 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 18Pepelu 5César Tárrega 21Jesús Vázquez

8Javi Guerra 2G. Rodríguez 23F. Ugrinic 39R. Sato

7A. Danjuma

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

3Marcos Alonso 29Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez

22Javi Galán 14Aleix Febas 8Miguel Román 5Sergio Carreira

23Hugo Álvarez 9Ferran Jutglà 39Jones El-Abdellaoui

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia-0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Celta Vigo+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home No home games yet this season.

Celta Vigo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Valencia wins2 draws3 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.50 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 10%

5 Apr 2026Valencia2–3Celta Vigo
3 Jan 2026Celta Vigo4–1Valencia
2 Feb 2025Valencia2–1Celta Vigo
23 Aug 2024Celta Vigo3–1Valencia
26 May 2024Celta Vigo2–2Valencia
25 Nov 2023Valencia0–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.70
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.70
Match goals	2.90	2.70	2.70
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.13
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	3.86
Corners conceded	5.22	3.57
Match total	9.44	7.43	10.00
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.80
Opponent cards	2.00	1.60
Match total	3.40	3.40	6.13
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.48league 5.44

Red cards0.25league 0.33

Cards 5+54%league 67%

Fouls24.8league 27.7

Penalties0.43league 0.33

Home wins45%league 56%

Valencia6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.7 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds1

L22 Feb 26A · Villarreal1–24
L24 Aug 25A · Osasuna0–12
L14 May 25A · Alaves0–12
D2 Mar 24H · Real Madrid2–22
W2 Jan 24H · Villarreal3–12

Celta Vigo4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 4.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

D27 Aug 25H · Real Betis1–11
L4 May 25A · Real Madrid2–31
D4 Dec 23H · Cadiz1–11
L22 May 21H · Real Betis2–36

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.