Valencia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Valencia45.5%fair odds 2.20
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Celta Vigo28.0%fair odds 3.58
Expected goals1.54 – 1.16total 2.70
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Valencia ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Valencia goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.92
- 1–09.7%10.31
- 2–19.3%10.80
- 2–08.0%12.53
- 0–07.3%13.65
- 0–17.1%14.03
- 1–27.0%14.38
- 2–25.4%18.62
- 3–14.8%20.99
- 0–24.5%22.21
Winning margin
9.4%
Valencia by 3+
fair 10.62
13.9%
Valencia by 2
fair 7.17
22.2%
Valencia by 1
fair 4.51
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
16.5%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 6.06
7.9%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 12.70
3.6%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 27.91
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Valencia goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Celta Vigo goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 45.5% | 46.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 28.0% | 27.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 51.8% | -1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.6% | 55.4% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Valencia | 1.54 | 1.57 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.16 | 1.17 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Valencia win45.5%2.20
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Celta Vigo win28.0%3.58
- Double chance Valencia or draw72.0%1.39
- Double chance Valencia or Celta Vigo73.5%1.36
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw54.5%1.84
- Draw no bet Valencia62.0%1.61
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo38.0%2.63
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.9%1.32
- Over 2.550.8%1.97
- Over 3.528.7%3.49
- Over 4.513.8%7.26
- Under 1.524.1%4.14
- Under 2.549.2%2.03
- Under 3.571.3%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes54.6%1.83
- No45.4%2.20
- Yes and over 2.542.0%2.38
- Valencia win and yes21.5%4.65
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Celta Vigo win and yes13.9%7.18
Team goals
- Valencia over 0.578.7%1.27
- Valencia over 1.545.7%2.19
- Valencia over 2.520.2%4.94
- Celta Vigo over 0.568.7%1.46
- Celta Vigo over 1.532.3%3.10
- Celta Vigo over 2.511.2%8.93
- Valencia clean sheet31.3%3.19
- Celta Vigo clean sheet21.3%4.69
- Valencia win to nil24.0%4.16
- Celta Vigo win to nil14.0%7.13
Handicap
- Valencia −1.523.4%4.28
- Valencia −2.59.4%10.62
- Celta Vigo +1.576.6%1.30
- Celta Vigo +2.590.6%1.10
- Celta Vigo −1.511.5%8.73
- Valencia +1.588.5%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored9
Favourite won44.4%
Avg chance given to result37.2%
1X2 Brier0.619
Over 2.5 called right33.3%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.0% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 56.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 9 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 9 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.