Valencia vs Elche – 10 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 10 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 18th · 16 pts · 18 played DDLDL

1–1Full time

Elche 9th · 22 pts · 18 played LWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 41). Valencia had 7.3 days of rest, Elche 7.1 and had to travel 138 km.

Away travel138 kmRest days7.3 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Valencia47%

Draw27%

Elche26%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.09

Valencia48%

Draw26%

Elche26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Valencia47%

Draw27%

Elche26%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.09

Valencia40%

Draw28%

Elche32%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.22

Valencia48%

Draw26%

Elche26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 35

Team strength

Valencia

Elche

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

39 AttackIn forecast 39

52 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Elche

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.28

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

72% Scored inContext 83%

22% Clean sheetsContext 28%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.11

2.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

27% On target shareContext 34%

7.12 Shots in the boxContext 7.72

61% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.08

12.22 Shots allowedContext 12.72

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.39

3.13 BlocksContext 3.39

3.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

64% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 59%

423 PassesContext 526

351 Accurate passesContext 460

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.44 FoulsContext 12.67

11.22 Fouls sufferedContext 13.83

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.89

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.70 ShotsContext 11.70

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

23% On target shareContext 32%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

63% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 11%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.90 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.33 BlocksContext 2.90

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

63% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 60%

452 PassesContext 529

381 Accurate passesContext 461

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.80 FoulsContext 13.30

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,531 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Elche

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel138 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,531 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

18Pepelu 23F. Ugrinic

11Luis Rioja 10André Almeida 16Diego López

15L. Beltrán

Elche Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Dituro(G)

21L. Pétrot 6Bigas 23Víctor Chust

7Yago Santiago 8Marc Aguado 16Martim Neto 15Alvaro Núñez

14Aleix Febas 11Germán Valera

20Á. Rodríguez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Absences are shown before kick-off

Elche Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Elche+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.44points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-2
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 0.89

Elche · Away 0.38points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-5
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Elche
Celta Vigo	L 1–4 A	W 2–1 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Atletico Madrid	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Levante	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	L 0–4 A	D 2–2 H
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 H
Alaves	D 0–0 A	L 1–3 A
Girona	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 H
Oviedo	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Espanyol	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	L 1–3 A
Getafe	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
Osasuna	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	16 of 54 · 0.89 per game	22 of 54 · 1.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Valencia wins1 draws1 Elche wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.83 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

23 Apr 2023Elche0–2Valencia
15 Oct 2022Valencia2–2Elche
19 Mar 2022Elche0–1Valencia
11 Dec 2021Valencia2–1Elche
30 Jan 2021Valencia1–0Elche
23 Oct 2020Elche2–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.33
Conceded per game	1.67	1.28
Match goals	2.61	2.61	2.64
Over 1.5	83%	78%
Over 2.5	44%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	22%	39%
Both teams scored	56%	61%	53%
Clean sheets	22%	28%
Failed to score	28%	17%
Games	18	18

	Valencia	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.64
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	3.11
Corners conceded	5.00	4.06
Match total	10.33	7.17	9.50
Over 8.5	60% 9/15	33% 6/18
Over 9.5	53% 8/15	17% 3/18
Over 10.5	53% 8/15	11% 2/18
Cards
Cards	1.83	2.06
Opponent cards	2.33	2.33
Match total	4.16	4.39	4.37
Over 3.5	61% 11/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	44% 8/18	50% 9/18

	Valencia	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.00
Corners conceded	4.50	3.50
Match total	10.00	6.50	9.50
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.60	2.40
Match total	4.50	4.30	4.37
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 4.11

Red cards0.26league 0.27

Cards 5+49%league 45%

Fouls23.8league 24.5

Penalties0.23league 0.33

Home wins37%league 46%

Valencia4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

W20 Sep 25H · Athletic Club2–01
D26 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–20
D30 Mar 24H · Mallorca0–00
D16 Dec 23H · Barcelona1–11

Elche1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L5 Oct 25A · Alaves1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.