Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Valencia had 6.8 days of rest, Osasuna 7.9 and had to travel 386 km.
Away travel386 kmRest days6.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Valencia42%
Draw28%
Osasuna31%
Valencia39%
Draw27%
Osasuna34%
Valencia41%
Draw28%
Osasuna31%
Valencia35%
Draw28%
Osasuna37%
Valencia42%
Draw27%
Osasuna31%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 15
Team strength
Valencia
Osasuna
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
39
AttackIn forecast
50
52
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaOsasuna
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
76%
Scored inContext
64%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.64
ShotsContext
10.76
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.74
27%
On target shareContext
32%
7.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
63%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.92
Shots allowedContext
12.64
4.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
3.45
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
66%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
410
PassesContext
366
336
Accurate passesContext
291
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.00
FoulsContext
13.24
11.04
Fouls sufferedContext
11.08
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
11.30
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
25%
On target shareContext
31%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
64%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.30
BlocksContext
3.44
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
428
PassesContext
339
353
Accurate passesContext
267
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.40
FoulsContext
14.10
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km114 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel386 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 386 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 114 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
24E. Cömert
4Unai Núñez
12Thierry Correia
11Luis Rioja
2G. Rodríguez
8Javi Guerra
17L. Ramazani
23F. Ugrinic
6U. Sadiq
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
7Moncayola
6Lucas Torró
18Raúl Moro
21Víctor Muñoz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Osasuna-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.08
Osasuna · Away
0.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-8
- Scored
- 0.62
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Alaves | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–6 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 26 of 72 · 1.08 per game | 30 of 72 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Valencia wins2 draws4 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 24 Aug 2025Osasuna1–0Valencia
- 2 Mar 2025Osasuna3–3Valencia
- 24 Sep 2024Valencia0–0Osasuna
- 15 Apr 2024Osasuna0–1Valencia
- 27 Aug 2023Valencia1–2Osasuna
- 11 Mar 2023Valencia1–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.36 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 48% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 36% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Valencia | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.95 | 3.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.23 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 10.18 | 7.95 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 14/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 11/22 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 11/22 | 9% 2/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 4.76 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 16/25 | 84% 21/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 13/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Valencia | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 2.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.12 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.10 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.18
Red cards0.20league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 46%
Fouls25.6league 24.6
Penalties0.33league 0.38
Home wins73%league 47%
Valencia1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W10 May 25H · Getafe3–03
Osasuna4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L13 Dec 25A · Barcelona0–23
- D25 Sep 25H · Elche1–12
- L19 Aug 25A · Real Madrid0–11
- W24 Apr 25H · Sevilla1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia25 games · scored 26 · conceded 39
3
1
0-15
3
6
16-30
7
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
11
76-90
Osasuna24 games · scored 30 · conceded 29
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
11
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
10
61-75
11
5
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
