Valencia vs Real Madrid – 8 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 8 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 17th · 23 pts · 22 played LDWWL

0–2Full time

Real Madrid 2nd · 54 pts · 22 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were slight favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Valencia had 7.2 days of rest, Real Madrid 7.3 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days7.2 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Valencia23%

Draw25%

Real Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.73

Valencia18%

Draw23%

Real Madrid59%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.89

Valencia22%

Draw25%

Real Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.77

Valencia18%

Draw23%

Real Madrid59%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.94

Valencia24%

Draw24%

Real Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.79

Over 2.5 54% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 37

Team strength

Valencia

Real Madrid

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

39 AttackIn forecast 89

52 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Real Madrid

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.14

1.59 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.82

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

77% Scored inContext 91%

23% Clean sheetsContext 45%

11.18 ShotsContext 18.68

3.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.91

27% On target shareContext 37%

7.38 Shots in the boxContext 11.64

63% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.94 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.14 Shots allowedContext 9.77

4.36 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.47

3.30 BlocksContext 3.15

3.21 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.42

66% Save rateContext 70%

49% PossessionIn forecast 59%

408 PassesContext 575

334 Accurate passesContext 515

82% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.17

12.00 FoulsContext 10.27

11.23 Fouls sufferedContext 13.05

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.59

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 2.07

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

100% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.90 ShotsContext 17.90

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

24% On target shareContext 34%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.20

66% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.20 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.67 BlocksContext 3.10

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

68% Save rateContext 73%

52% PossessionIn forecast 57%

428 PassesContext 550

352 Accurate passesContext 493

82% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.15

12.50 FoulsContext 10.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,079 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Madrid

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel302 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb	7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,079 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 24E. Cömert 4Unai Núñez

7A. Danjuma 23F. Ugrinic 18Pepelu 11Luis Rioja

9Hugo Duro 15L. Beltrán

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 24D. Huijsen 17Raúl Asencio 35David Jiménez

6E. Camavinga 14A. Tchouaméni 8F. Valverde 15A. Güler

16Gonzalo García 10K. Mbappé

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+1.3 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Real Madrid-1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.55points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-2
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.00

Real Madrid · Away 2.18points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Real Madrid
Real Betis	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 5–1 H
Espanyol	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Getafe	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Celta Vigo	L 1–4 A	L 0–2 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 1–2 A	L 2–5 A
Sevilla	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Levante	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 HW 4–1 A
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H
Alaves	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Girona	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Oviedo	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 A
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	W 2–1 H
Osasuna	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Points	23 of 63 · 1.10 per game	51 of 63 · 2.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Valencia wins1 draws7 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game0.90 – 2.40 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

1 Nov 2025Real Madrid4–0Valencia
5 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–2Valencia
3 Jan 2025Valencia1–2Real Madrid
2 Mar 2024Valencia2–2Real Madrid
11 Nov 2023Real Madrid5–1Valencia
21 May 2023Valencia1–0Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	2.14
Conceded per game	1.59	0.82
Match goals	2.64	2.95	2.82
Over 1.5	82%	86%
Over 2.5	45%	59%	54%
Over 3.5	23%	27%
Both teams scored	59%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	23%	45%
Failed to score	23%	9%
Games	22	22

	Valencia	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.10
Conceded per game	1.40	0.80
Match goals	2.60	2.90	2.82
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.16	6.16
Corners conceded	5.21	3.95
Match total	10.37	10.11	9.58
Over 8.5	63% 12/19	74% 14/19
Over 9.5	53% 10/19	58% 11/19
Over 10.5	53% 10/19	42% 8/19
Cards
Cards	1.91	1.73
Opponent cards	2.36	2.73
Match total	4.27	4.46	4.43
Over 3.5	64% 14/22	50% 11/22
Over 4.5	50% 11/22	41% 9/22

	Valencia	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	6.11
Corners conceded	5.11	4.56
Match total	10.44	10.67	9.58
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.80
Opponent cards	2.70	2.90
Match total	4.70	5.70	4.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.38league 4.16

Red cards0.19league 0.27

Cards 5+24%league 45%

Fouls24.3league 24.6

Penalties0.38league 0.37

Home wins49%league 47%

Valencia3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D1 Dec 25A · Rayo Vallecano1–11
L25 Oct 25H · Villarreal0–22
W19 Dec 23A · Rayo Vallecano1–06

Real Madrid4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L27 Sep 25A · Atletico Madrid2–54
W14 May 25H · Mallorca2–10
W31 Mar 24H · Athletic Club2–02
L24 Sep 23A · Atletico Madrid1–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.