Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 53). Absences weigh more on Valencia. Valencia had 5 days of rest, Villarreal 7.1 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days5 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Valencia30%
Draw28%
Villarreal41%
Valencia32%
Draw27%
Villarreal41%
Valencia31%
Draw29%
Villarreal40%
Valencia24%
Draw27%
Villarreal48%
Valencia31%
Draw27%
Villarreal43%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 25
Team strength
Valencia
Villarreal
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
39
AttackIn forecast
76
52
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaVillarreal
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
67%
Scored inContext
89%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.56
ShotsContext
14.11
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
33%
On target shareContext
35%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
59%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.60
13.78
Shots allowedContext
11.56
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
4.00
BlocksContext
5.29
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
67%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
378
PassesContext
424
302
Accurate passesContext
362
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.89
FoulsContext
10.89
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
32%
On target shareContext
29%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
60%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.83
13.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.78
BlocksContext
4.78
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
68%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
394
PassesContext
367
317
Accurate passesContext
303
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.90
FoulsContext
11.70
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km843 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Oct | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 843 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
3Copete
5César Tárrega
12Thierry Correia
7A. Danjuma
8Javi Guerra
18Pepelu
11Luis Rioja
15L. Beltrán
16Diego López
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Villarreal+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Villarreal · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | L 1–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Oviedo | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Valencia wins3 draws4 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 15 Feb 2025Villarreal1–1Valencia
- 31 Aug 2024Valencia1–1Villarreal
- 17 Mar 2024Villarreal1–0Valencia
- 2 Jan 2024Valencia3–1Villarreal
- 3 May 2023Valencia1–1Villarreal
- 31 Dec 2022Villarreal2–1Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.89 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Valencia | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.89 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 10.71 | 9.00 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.89 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Valencia | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.51 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.70 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 4.09
Red cards0.16league 0.28
Cards 5+28%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 24.9
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins48%league 46%
Valencia1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.6.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W19 Dec 23A · Rayo Vallecano1–06
Villarreal4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W25 May 25H · Sevilla4–20
- L23 Apr 25A · Celta Vigo0–32
- D16 Feb 24H · Getafe1–10
- W18 Aug 23A · Mallorca1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia9 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Villarreal9 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
