Venezia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Venezia14.9%fair odds 6.71
Draw18.9%fair odds 5.29
Lazio66.2%fair odds 1.51
Expected goals1.07 – 2.39total 3.45
Likeliest score1–29.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lazio
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Venezia ↓ · Lazio → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Venezia goals, columns Lazio goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%10.40
- 0–29.0%11.08
- 1–18.5%11.78
- 1–37.6%13.08
- 0–37.2%13.93
- 0–17.1%14.01
- 2–25.1%19.53
- 1–44.6%21.92
- 2–14.3%23.30
- 0–44.3%23.35
Winning margin
1.5%
Venezia by 3+
fair 66.38
3.9%
Venezia by 2
fair 25.65
9.5%
Venezia by 1
fair 10.53
18.9%
Draw
fair 5.29
21.8%
Lazio by 1
fair 4.59
19.6%
Lazio by 2
fair 5.11
24.8%
Lazio by 3+
fair 4.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Venezia goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Lazio goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia win | 14.9% | 14.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 18.9% | 18.9% | -0.0 pp |
| Lazio win | 66.2% | 66.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 66.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.9% | 58.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Venezia | 1.07 | 1.03 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Lazio | 2.39 | 2.37 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Venezia win14.9%6.71
- Draw18.9%5.29
- Lazio win66.2%1.51
- Double chance Venezia or draw33.8%2.96
- Double chance Venezia or Lazio81.1%1.23
- Double chance Lazio or draw85.1%1.18
- Draw no bet Venezia18.4%5.44
- Draw no bet Lazio81.6%1.23
Goals
- Over 0.596.4%1.04
- Over 1.586.3%1.16
- Over 2.567.0%1.49
- Over 3.545.3%2.21
- Over 4.526.5%3.77
- Under 1.513.7%7.31
- Under 2.533.0%3.03
- Under 3.554.7%1.83
Both teams to score
- Yes59.9%1.67
- No40.1%2.50
- Yes and over 2.551.4%1.94
- Venezia win and yes9.3%10.75
- Draw and yes15.3%6.53
- Lazio win and yes35.3%2.83
Team goals
- Venezia over 0.565.5%1.53
- Venezia over 1.528.8%3.47
- Venezia over 2.59.3%10.79
- Lazio over 0.590.8%1.10
- Lazio over 1.568.8%1.45
- Lazio over 2.542.7%2.34
- Venezia clean sheet9.2%10.87
- Lazio clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Venezia win to nil5.6%17.85
- Lazio win to nil30.9%3.24
Handicap
- Venezia −1.55.4%18.50
- Venezia −2.51.5%66.38
- Lazio +1.594.6%1.06
- Lazio +2.598.5%1.02
- Lazio −1.544.4%2.25
- Venezia +1.555.6%1.80
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won59.1%
Avg chance given to result45.1%
1X2 Brier0.513
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 20 | 45.8% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 62.4% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 74.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 88.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 33 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5241 | 0.5467 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.5% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 57.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 33 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.