Venezia vs Lazio – 19 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 19 · 19:45 Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia

Venezia 20th · 0 pts · 4 played LLLL

0–2Full time

Lazio 5th · 10 pts · 4 played WWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were clear favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lazio. Venezia had 8 days of rest, Lazio 7.1 and had to travel 394 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel394 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Venezia15%

Draw18%

Lazio67%

Expected goals 1.07 – 2.39

Venezia18%

Draw22%

Lazio60%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.91

Venezia16%

Draw19%

Lazio66%

Expected goals 1.04 – 2.30

Venezia11%

Draw15%

Lazio74%

Expected goals 0.95 – 2.67

Venezia15%

Draw18%

Lazio67%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.37

Over 2.5 67% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Venezia)

23°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 73%

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 100

Team strength

Venezia

Lazio

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

21 AttackIn forecast 53

14 DefenceIn forecast 63

10 Form indexContext 83

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Venezia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Venezia

Lazio

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

2.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.50 ShotsContext 13.00

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

32% On target shareContext 35%

9.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

71% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.75 Shots allowedContext 12.00

6.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

2.25 BlocksContext 3.25

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

63% Save rateContext 74%

59% PossessionIn forecast 45%

480 PassesContext 414

409 Accurate passesContext 354

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.72 Team ratingContext 7.01

10.75 FoulsContext 14.75

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.70 ShotsContext 11.60

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

33% On target shareContext 42%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

67% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.14

14.90 Shots allowedContext 12.20

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

3.70 BlocksContext 2.80

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

60% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

412 PassesContext 444

337 Accurate passesContext 387

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.90 FoulsContext 13.30

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Venezia LLLL

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km860 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 0 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected

L11 SepH · Fiorentina2–41.2 xPts
L6 SepA · Frosinone2–30.9 xPts
L28 AugA · AC Milan0–20.4 xPts
L23 AugH · Lecce0–21.3 xPts

Lazio WWWD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel394 km936 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 83 · 10 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected

D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts
W30 AugH · Genoa1–01.9 xPts
W24 AugA · Bologna1–01.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Venezia	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Sep	7.1Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	394 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	860 km	936 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	22.9	21.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Venezia Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1F. Stanković(G)

2M. Moreno 15Juan Jesus 3J. Schingtienne

14Thierry Correia 21Þ. Helgason 19S. Sohm 71Kike Pérez 18A. Hainaut

45A. Adams 10J. Yeboah

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

35C. Mandas(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini

24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 22M. Cancellieri

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Venezia Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Venezia-0.4 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Lazio+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Venezia · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Lazio · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Venezia	Lazio
AC Milan	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Venezia wins1 draws3 Lazio wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 50%

22 Feb 2025Venezia0–0Lazio
18 Aug 2024Lazio3–1Venezia
14 Mar 2022Lazio1–0Venezia
22 Dec 2021Venezia1–3Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Venezia	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.75	0.75
Match goals	3.75	2.25	3.45
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	4	4

	Venezia	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.75	1.30
Match goals	3.75	2.80	3.45
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	4	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Venezia	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	3.75	4.25
Match total	6.75	9.25	9.51
Over 8.5	0% 0/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	0% 0/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.75	3.75
Match total	4.25	5.75	3.23
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4

	Venezia	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	4.44
Corners conceded	4.30	3.78
Match total	8.20	8.22	9.51
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.80	2.30
Match total	3.30	4.80	3.23
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.15league 3.16

Red cards0.16league 0.02

Cards 5+41%league 20%

Fouls24.7league 22.2

Penalties0.47league 0.07

Home wins40%league 41%

Venezia3 with this referee

Record0-3-0 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D2 May 25A · Torino1–10
D25 Aug 24A · Fiorentina0–02
D14 May 22A · AS Roma1–16

Lazio8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D7 Jan 26H · Fiorentina2–23
L21 Sep 25H · AS Roma0–12
D13 Apr 25H · AS Roma1–14
W29 Sep 24A · Torino3–23
L3 Sep 22H · Napoli1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.