Verona vs Fiorentina – 4 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 4 · 17:00 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 18 pts · 30 played LLWLL

0–1Full time

Fiorentina 16th · 29 pts · 30 played WLDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fiorentina. Verona had 13.1 days of rest, Fiorentina 12.8 and had to travel 186 km.

Away travel186 kmRest days13.1 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Verona23%

Draw29%

Fiorentina48%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.38

Verona25%

Draw26%

Fiorentina49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.63

Verona23%

Draw29%

Fiorentina48%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.37

Verona18%

Draw27%

Fiorentina55%

Expected goals 0.79 – 1.55

Verona24%

Draw27%

Fiorentina49%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.52

Over 2.5 39% Both score 45% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 85

Team strength

Verona

Fiorentina

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

15 AttackIn forecast 42

29 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Fiorentina

0.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.47

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

50% Scored inContext 73%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.57 ShotsContext 13.47

3.72 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.76

34% On target shareContext 27%

6.07 Shots in the boxContext 8.53

56% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.36

13.30 Shots allowedContext 12.43

4.41 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.64

4.10 BlocksContext 3.30

2.66 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.93

60% Save rateContext 65%

40% PossessionIn forecast 53%

326 PassesContext 429

244 Accurate passesContext 364

75% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.81

15.57 FoulsContext 12.17

8.93 Fouls sufferedContext 16.03

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.27

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

40% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.70 ShotsContext 14.60

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

28% On target shareContext 32%

4.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

53% Box shareContext 58%

6% ConversionContext 12%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.30 Shots allowedContext 10.30

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

4.00 BlocksContext 2.78

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

54% Save rateContext 69%

42% PossessionIn forecast 49%

341 PassesContext 431

263 Accurate passesContext 362

77% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.20 FoulsContext 12.70

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km214 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel186 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.1Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar	12.8Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	186 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	214 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

3M. Frese 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson

7R. Belghali 24A. Bernede 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 2D. Oyegoke

16G. Orban 18K. Bowie

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 6L. Ranieri 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 80G. Fabbian

10A. Guðmundsson 20M. Kean 17J. Harrison

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Fiorentina-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.50points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-9
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 1.64

Fiorentina · Away 0.93points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-7
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	Fiorentina
Atalanta	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H	L 0–2 A
Genoa	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Bologna	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Napoli	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H
Sassuolo	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
Parma	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Pisa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Cagliari	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Udinese	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A	L 0–3 AW 5–1 H
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	D 2–2 A
Torino	L 0–3 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Lecce	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
Inter	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Como	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	15 of 87 · 0.52 per game	29 of 87 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Verona wins2 draws4 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game0.89 – 1.44 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets11% · 33%

14 Dec 2025Fiorentina1–2Verona
23 Feb 2025Verona1–0Fiorentina
10 Nov 2024Fiorentina3–1Verona
5 May 2024Verona2–1Fiorentina
17 Dec 2023Fiorentina1–0Verona
27 Feb 2023Verona0–3Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.73	1.17
Conceded per game	1.73	1.47
Match goals	2.47	2.63	2.26
Over 1.5	73%	77%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	39%
Over 3.5	27%	27%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	45%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	50%	27%
Games	30	30

	Verona	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.26
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	39%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	3.69	4.55
Corners conceded	4.62	4.45
Match total	8.31	9.00	8.69
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	55% 16/29
Over 9.5	31% 9/29	52% 15/29
Over 10.5	21% 6/29	24% 7/29
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.37
Opponent cards	1.67	2.33
Match total	3.97	4.70	3.92
Over 3.5	50% 15/30	70% 21/30
Over 4.5	37% 11/30	60% 18/30

	Verona	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.44
Corners conceded	4.56	3.56
Match total	8.56	8.00	8.69
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	1.70	2.30
Match total	3.80	5.00	3.92
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.75

Red cards0.13league 0.19

Cards 5+39%league 35%

Fouls23.9league 25.1

Penalties0.35league 0.31

Home wins44%league 40%

Verona4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Jan 26H · Lazio0–12
D18 Oct 25A · Pisa0–02
W4 Oct 24H · Venezia2–13
W20 Apr 24H · Udinese1–02

Fiorentina7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 1

L24 Jan 26H · Cagliari1–22
L27 Dec 25A · Parma0–12
D9 Nov 25A · Genoa2–24
W26 Feb 24H · Lazio2–10
D17 Apr 23H · Atalanta1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.