Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Verona. Verona had 5 days of rest, Juventus 7 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days5 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Verona16%
Draw24%
Juventus61%
Verona18%
Draw23%
Juventus59%
Verona17%
Draw25%
Juventus58%
Verona12%
Draw21%
Juventus68%
Verona16%
Draw22%
Juventus62%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Rapuano
Team strength
Verona
Juventus
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
15
AttackIn forecast
57
29
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaJuventus
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.66
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.91
33%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.33
ShotsContext
16.67
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
30%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
49%
Box shareContext
53%
3%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.33
Shots allowedContext
10.67
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
4.33
BlocksContext
3.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
75%
Save rateContext
43%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
326
PassesContext
434
255
Accurate passesContext
368
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.60
Team ratingContext
7.07
17.00
FoulsContext
12.67
7.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
40%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.60
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
32%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
54%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.20
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.13
BlocksContext
3.40
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
65%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
318
PassesContext
405
239
Accurate passesContext
343
75%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.04
17.00
FoulsContext
13.40
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Sep | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
3M. Frese
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
12D. Bradarić
24A. Bernede
11J. Akpa Akpro
8S. Serdar
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
6L. Kelly
4F. Gatti
15P. Kalulu
27A. Cambiaso
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
25João Mário
10K. Yıldız
7Francisco Conceição
9D. Vlahović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona-1.3 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Juventus+2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Juventus · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Verona wins1 draws6 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.63
Over 2.538%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 3 Mar 2025Juventus2–0Verona
- 26 Aug 2024Verona0–3Juventus
- 17 Feb 2024Verona2–2Juventus
- 28 Oct 2023Juventus1–0Verona
- 1 Apr 2023Juventus1–0Verona
- 10 Nov 2022Verona0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Verona | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 10.33 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 3.66 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Verona | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.67 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Verona3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Juventus3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
