Verona vs Lazio – 11 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 11 · 17:00 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 13 pts · 18 played WWLLD

0–1Full time

Lazio 10th · 25 pts · 19 played WDDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were slight favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 23). Verona had 4 days of rest, Lazio 3.9 and had to travel 413 km.

Away travel413 kmRest days4 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Verona24%

Draw28%

Lazio49%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.49

Verona24%

Draw26%

Lazio50%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.65

Verona24%

Draw28%

Lazio49%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.49

Verona19%

Draw26%

Lazio56%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.66

Verona25%

Draw26%

Lazio50%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.65

Over 2.5 44% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 76

Team strength

Verona

Lazio

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

15 AttackIn forecast 53

29 DefenceIn forecast 63

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Lazio

0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.84

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

56% Scored inContext 53%

17% Clean sheetsContext 47%

11.39 ShotsContext 11.16

4.28 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.39

38% On target shareContext 37%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

56% Box shareContext 58%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.44

13.39 Shots allowedContext 12.79

4.59 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.21

4.39 BlocksContext 2.95

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.47

64% Save rateContext 83%

40% PossessionIn forecast 50%

313 PassesContext 459

230 Accurate passesContext 393

74% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.89

16.67 FoulsContext 10.89

8.11 Fouls sufferedContext 16.68

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.21

This league season, per match · 18 and 19 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.80 ShotsContext 11.90

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

38% On target shareContext 40%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

57% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.60 Shots allowedContext 11.90

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

5.30 BlocksContext 3.50

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 81%

39% PossessionIn forecast 51%

306 PassesContext 475

224 Accurate passesContext 409

73% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.86

16.90 FoulsContext 10.70

7.30 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,150 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lazio

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel413 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan	3.9Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	413 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,150 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson

3M. Frese 24A. Bernede 63R. Gagliardini 36C. Niasse 12D. Bradarić

16G. Orban 17Giovane

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

3L. Pellegrini 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 32D. Cataldi 5M. Vecino

22M. Cancellieri 14T. Noslin 18G. Isaksen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lazio-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Lazio · Away 1.00points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-4
Scored: 0.56
Conceded: 0.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Verona	Lazio
Napoli	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 H
Torino	L 0–3 H	D 3–3 H
AC Milan	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 A
Genoa	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Parma	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Lecce	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 H
Inter	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Como	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Cagliari	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Sassuolo	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Points	13 of 51 · 0.76 per game	21 of 51 · 1.24 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Verona wins3 draws5 Lazio wins

Goals per game1.11 – 2.00 Over 2.556% Both scored56% Clean sheets0% · 44%

31 Aug 2025Lazio4–0Verona
19 Jan 2025Verona0–3Lazio
16 Sep 2024Lazio2–1Verona
27 Apr 2024Lazio1–0Verona
9 Dec 2023Verona1–1Lazio
6 Feb 2023Verona1–1Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	1.05
Conceded per game	1.67	0.84
Match goals	2.50	1.89	2.45
Over 1.5	78%	58%
Over 2.5	61%	21%	44%
Over 3.5	28%	16%
Both teams scored	56%	21%	49%
Clean sheets	17%	47%
Failed to score	44%	47%
Games	18	19

	Verona	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.90
Conceded per game	1.90	0.90
Match goals	3.00	1.80	2.45
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	90%	10%	44%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.61	4.50
Corners conceded	4.83	3.75
Match total	8.44	8.25	8.82
Over 8.5	50% 9/18	50% 8/16
Over 9.5	39% 7/18	38% 6/16
Over 10.5	22% 4/18	13% 2/16
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.42
Opponent cards	1.67	2.95
Match total	4.17	5.37	4.04
Over 3.5	61% 11/18	79% 15/19
Over 4.5	50% 9/18	68% 13/19

	Verona	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	5.22
Corners conceded	5.60	3.44
Match total	8.90	8.66	8.82
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	3.00
Opponent cards	1.10	2.90
Match total	3.80	5.90	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 76 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.08league 3.90

Red cards0.12league 0.18

Cards 5+41%league 38%

Fouls24.4league 25.8

Penalties0.37league 0.31

Home wins43%league 37%

Verona3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Oct 25A · Pisa0–02
W4 Oct 24H · Venezia2–13
W20 Apr 24H · Udinese1–02

Lazio7 with this referee

Record1-1-5 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 2

L6 Apr 24A · AS Roma0–13
L26 Feb 24A · Fiorentina1–22
L4 Feb 24A · Atalanta1–33
L30 Apr 23A · Inter1–33
L24 Apr 22H · AC Milan1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.