Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 22). Verona had 14.9 days of rest, Parma 14.7 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days14.9 · 14.7Matches / 14d0 · 0
Verona37%
Draw30%
Parma34%
Verona37%
Draw27%
Parma35%
Verona36%
Draw30%
Parma34%
Verona30%
Draw29%
Parma41%
Verona38%
Draw27%
Parma35%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 63
Team strength
Verona
Parma
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
15
AttackIn forecast
20
29
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaParma
0.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
45%
Scored inContext
45%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.64
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
39%
On target shareContext
28%
7.36
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
62%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.64
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.91
BlocksContext
3.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
68%
Save rateContext
72%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
302
PassesContext
324
218
Accurate passesContext
251
72%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.73
16.55
FoulsContext
11.55
8.91
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.68
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
40%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
10.00
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
40%
On target shareContext
28%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
66%
Box shareContext
61%
4%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.90
BlocksContext
3.78
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
71%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
303
PassesContext
329
219
Accurate passesContext
256
72%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.75
16.80
FoulsContext
11.60
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 14.7Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
3M. Frese
15V. Nelsson
37A. Bella-Kotchap
12D. Bradarić
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
11J. Akpa Akpro
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
18M. Løvik
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Parma-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Parma · Away
0.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Como | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 2 of 18 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Verona wins1 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 31 Mar 2025Verona0–0Parma
- 15 Dec 2024Parma2–3Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.55 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.91 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 36% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 55% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Verona | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.90 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.27 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.90 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 3.55 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Verona | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 7.56 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.40 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.90
Red cards0.24league 0.12
Cards 5+51%league 39%
Fouls25.6league 26.2
Penalties0.38league 0.31
Home wins37%league 37%
Verona3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Apr 25A · AS Roma0–12
- D30 Jan 23A · Udinese1–13
- D19 Feb 22A · AS Roma2–22
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona11 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
76-90
Parma11 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
