Verona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Verona36.6%fair odds 2.73
Draw29.5%fair odds 3.39
Parma33.9%fair odds 2.95
Expected goals1.19 – 1.14total 2.33
Likeliest score1–113.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Parma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Verona ↓ · Parma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Verona goals, columns Parma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.9%7.20
- 1–010.9%9.19
- 0–010.4%9.62
- 0–110.3%9.67
- 2–17.9%12.69
- 1–27.5%13.31
- 2–06.9%14.46
- 0–26.3%15.90
- 2–24.5%22.28
- 3–13.1%31.86
Winning margin
5.2%
Verona by 3+
fair 19.21
10.6%
Verona by 2
fair 9.40
20.8%
Verona by 1
fair 4.82
29.5%
Draw
fair 3.39
19.8%
Parma by 1
fair 5.06
9.7%
Parma by 2
fair 10.34
4.4%
Parma by 3+
fair 22.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Verona goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Parma goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verona win | 36.6% | 38.2% | -1.6 pp |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Parma win | 33.9% | 34.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 41.3% | 50.8% | -9.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.1% | 55.6% | -7.5 pp |
| Expected goals Verona | 1.19 | 1.39 | -0.20 |
| Expected goals Parma | 1.14 | 1.32 | -0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Verona win36.6%2.73
- Draw29.5%3.39
- Parma win33.9%2.95
- Double chance Verona or draw66.1%1.51
- Double chance Verona or Parma70.5%1.42
- Double chance Parma or draw63.4%1.58
- Draw no bet Verona51.9%1.93
- Draw no bet Parma48.1%2.08
Goals
- Over 0.589.6%1.12
- Over 1.568.4%1.46
- Over 2.541.3%2.42
- Over 3.520.8%4.82
- Over 4.58.8%11.39
- Under 1.531.6%3.16
- Under 2.558.7%1.70
- Under 3.579.2%1.26
Both teams to score
- Yes48.1%2.08
- No51.9%1.93
- Yes and over 2.534.2%2.92
- Verona win and yes15.0%6.67
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Parma win and yes14.0%7.15
Team goals
- Verona over 0.569.7%1.43
- Verona over 1.533.5%2.98
- Verona over 2.511.9%8.38
- Parma over 0.568.0%1.47
- Parma over 1.531.5%3.17
- Parma over 2.510.8%9.29
- Verona clean sheet32.0%3.12
- Parma clean sheet30.3%3.30
- Verona win to nil21.6%4.63
- Parma win to nil19.9%5.03
Handicap
- Verona −1.515.8%6.31
- Verona −2.55.2%19.21
- Parma +1.584.2%1.19
- Parma +2.594.8%1.05
- Parma −1.514.1%7.08
- Verona +1.585.9%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored114
Favourite won46.5%
Avg chance given to result39.2%
1X2 Brier0.631
Over 2.5 called right57.0%
BTTS called right48.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 18 | 37.9% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 38 | 44.4% | 39.5% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 54.2% | 32.0% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.1% | 68.4% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 93 of 114 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6284 | 0.6097 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 39.4% |
| Favourite won | 45.2% | 45.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 93 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 114 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.