Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Verona were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Pisa. Verona had 6 days of rest, Pisa 6.2 and had to travel 198 km.
Away travel198 kmRest days6 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Verona43%
Draw29%
Pisa29%
Verona48%
Draw26%
Pisa26%
Verona44%
Draw29%
Pisa27%
Verona36%
Draw29%
Pisa35%
Verona44%
Draw27%
Pisa29%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 77
Team strength
Verona
Pisa
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
15
AttackIn forecast
15
29
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaPisa
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.74
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
52%
Scored inContext
52%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.09
ShotsContext
10.30
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
37%
On target shareContext
27%
6.52
Shots in the boxContext
8.05
59%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.26
OffsidesContext
1.94
13.30
Shots allowedContext
15.74
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
4.22
BlocksContext
4.32
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
62%
Save rateContext
68%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
325
PassesContext
309
242
Accurate passesContext
236
74%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.61
FoulsContext
12.70
8.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.91
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
50%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
36%
On target shareContext
30%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
53%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.40
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.50
BlocksContext
3.90
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
56%
Save rateContext
65%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
341
PassesContext
313
260
Accurate passesContext
236
76%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.60
FoulsContext
12.70
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,414 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel198 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,414 km | 435 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
5A. Edmundsson
15V. Nelsson
19T. Slotsager
3M. Frese
4S. Lovrić
73Al Musrati
24A. Bernede
36C. Niasse
16G. Orban
18K. Bowie
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
2R. Bozhinov
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
35Felipe Loyola
15I. Touré
32S. Moreo
81F. Stojilković
17R. Durosinmi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
0.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.73
Pisa · Away
0.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-7-4
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 2.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Udinese | L 1–3 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Bologna | L 2–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Lazio | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Torino | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| Como | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 13 of 66 · 0.59 per game | 13 of 66 · 0.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Verona wins1 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 18 Oct 2025Pisa0–0Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 43% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 48% | 48% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Verona | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.61 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 8.39 | 8.96 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 8/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Verona | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.56 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.60 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 3.81
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+27%league 36%
Fouls24.8league 25.6
Penalties0.22league 0.31
Home wins23%league 38%
Verona11 with this referee
Record3-5-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds4
- L2 Nov 25H · Inter1–21
- W25 May 25A · Empoli2–12
- D1 Apr 24A · Cagliari1–12
- W13 Jan 24H · Empoli2–14
- W26 Aug 23H · AS Roma2–12
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L8 Dec 25H · Parma0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona23 games · scored 18 · conceded 41
1
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
1
14
76-90
Pisa23 games · scored 19 · conceded 40
4
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
11
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
11
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
